While waiting for the long Easter weekend, let's get ready for a Fire Thursday, full of fundamental events for the future of our country. On one side there is politics, with the meeting in Washington between the President of the United States Donald Trump and the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni during which the Prime Minister will try to convince the US administration to return to more moderate advice on the subject of duties in order to avoid a global trade war, but also to contain further damage on international markets after the stock market disaster of the past few weeks. On the other hand, there is the banking risk, with the assembly of Monte dei Paschi called to vote on the capital increase to service the €13,3 billion offer on Mediobanca. In the middle there is also monetary policy on which analysts' forecast is practically unanimous: ECB to cut rates today by a further 25 basis points, but all eyes will be on the new growth and inflation forecasts and on Christine Lagarde who, during the usual post-meeting press conference, could provide some indications on the near future and on the possible countermeasures that Frankfurt will adopt to limit the effects of the tariff conflict. In the meantime, on the markets, as usual on days full of appointments, strong volatility is expected.
Meloni in Washington with Trump
Duties and more. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni flew to Washington yesterday, where she will meet Trump today for a bilateral Italy-USA which Palazzo Chigi would have prepared concert with the EU: the visit “was coordinated with Commission President von der Leyen,” the EU spokeswoman confirmed on Thursday, reiterating however that the negotiating competence remains with the EU.I don't feel any pressure, as you can imagine,” the Prime Minister joked before leaving. The main purpose of the meeting is one: to convince Trump to do something step back on duties, or at least get closer to the Brussels proposal that provides for zero tariffs on cars and industry, on which negotiations are apparently at a standstill. Will he succeed? Expectations do not seem to be the best, but there is no harm in trying, according to Palazzo Chigi. "We will do our best, let's see how it goes", confirmed Meloni who will also meet the US vice president on Friday JD Vance, this time in Rome, during his visit to Italy.
During the meeting between Meloni and Trump, other important issues will also be discussed, from gas liquefied, which Trump would like EU countries to purchase in greater quantities, to the increase in military spending, without forgetting the war in Ukraine, following the US refusal to sign a draft G7 declaration that was supposed to condemn Sunday's attack in Sumy, which cost the lives of 35 people.
ECB cuts rates
And i duties will also be at the centre of decisions regarding monetary policy. There are few, if any, doubts: in order to counteract the effects of the tariffs, the ECB will announce a new rate cut of 25 basis points, the seventh since last June, bringing the deposit rate to 2,25%. Analysts are convinced of this, but so is the market, which has already priced in the cut.
With the introduction of the so-called “floor tariffs” of 10%, plus a series of sector-specific measures and the threat of a 20% tariff, EU exporters are in a much weaker position, sentiment has weakened and financial wealth has taken a hit. “The combination of these factors has caused a major demand shock, which will negatively impact both the growth is on 'inflation in the euro area,” explains Felix Feather, economist at Aberdeen Investments, according to whom “the collapse of confidence in the global economic outlook and in dollar-denominated assets will contribute to lower eurozone inflation in the short term. Since 1 April, the euro has strengthened by 5,3% against the dollar and oil has fallen by 16,6% in euros”. For all these reasons, the Eurotower will cut rates by 25 basis points. “And unless the Trump administration further reviews its tariff policy, the ECB's rate-cutting cycle will continue at least until the summer,” concludes the expert.
Attention will also be focused on the new growth and inflation forecasts and on the words of the president of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde, who, according to Unicredit, will not make any commitments but "will probably suggest that a further monetary easing”. According to Goldman Sachs, the ECB will cut rates three times this year – in April, June and July – but today Lagarde could express greater “concern about growth due to trade tensions” and “reduced fears about the inflationary impact of tariffs”. Finally, according to Bank of America, the ECB’s number one could leave the door open to further cuts and the possibility of bringing rates below the neutral level (between 1,75% and 2,25%).
The MPS assembly decides on Mediobanca
Third, crucial, appointment on a Thursday that couldn't be hotter is the assembly of Mps called to approve the 2024 budget, but above all thecapital increase at the service of the 13,3 billion euro offer on Mediobanca. This is one of the crucial steps in an operation that could literally shake up the structure of Italian finance, bringing under the control of Siena that Mediobanca which for years and years has been the symbol of Italian capitalism. Without forgetting that Piazzetta Cuccia is the main shareholder, with 13% of the capital of Generali which in a few days (April 24) will have to renew its leadership in a meeting in which, regardless of what happens today, sparks are expected to fly.
The vote on the capital increase preparatory to the offer on Mediobanca for MPS it will be a sort of "call to arms" in view of the takeover bid that could start next July. Numbers in hand, the operation strongly desired by CEO Luigi Lovaglio and also supported by the Italian government, seems to have good chance of making it. In fact, already on the eve of the meeting, the front of the shareholders in favour has exceeded 50% of the capital.
To have already expressed themselves in favor of the operation are in fact the Mef (11,7%), Delfin (9,7%), Caltagirone (9,9%) and, lastly, also Banco Bpm (5%) and Anima (3,9%). Yes also from Algebris (between 1 and 2%), Pimco (1,5%), Norges Bank (2,6%) and the banking foundations (1,5%). Finally, California State Teachers Retirement System, Andrea Pignataro's Ion group and the pension funds (the latter with 4-5% of the capital) should also vote yes to the increase.
The State Board of Administration Florida, Calvert, New York City Comptroller and CPP Investments will instead say no. Split the proxies: if Glass Lewis has recommended that MPS shareholders vote in favour, Iss advised to vote against the OPS.
According to forecasts, 70-75% of the shareholders should attend the meeting. Considering that the operation will have to be approved by two-thirds of the capital, the increase could already be in the bag.