I Southern Mediterranean Countries (Med10) present great diversity from an economic point of view and the study “South with variable geometry” published byISPI distinguishes them into four groups. In the first, i Net oil exporting countries (Algeria and Libya) with a strong concentration of exports, where as much as 90% is represented by energy products and derivatives. THE North African countries (Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt), characterized by a more diversified development and deep trade relations with the EU, the main trading partner and source of 50% of productive investments. THE Countries with diversified economy of the Middle East (Syria, Jordan, Lebanon), with a more developed tertiary sector and strong economic relations also with non-EU countries, in particular with the Gulf economies. Finally, two countries (Israel and Turkey), with specific characteristics. In the first case, a very advanced economy and with a highly developed high-tech sector; a country, in the second case, a candidate for entry into the EU and a bridge between Europe and the Middle East, where the major ones investment opportunity they are vertical in the mechanical and energy sectors. In the decade 10-1999, the entire Med2008 area recorded sustained economic growth, with an average annual increase in GDP of 4,2%, approximately two points higher than the growth rate of the Eurozone, but still lower than the average of the so-called emerging economies. This characteristic was on average more contained for the countries that export net oil and more accentuated for the economies of North Africa and the Middle East with greater production diversification. In fact, the degree of is more incisive economic stability, theopenness to trade and foreign investment, the quality of infrastructure and education.
The impact of the protest on economic performance was different in the three groups concerned. The countries that were directly invested by it went through a recession in 2011. The fall in GDP was particularly sharp in Libya (-27,9%), Syria (-6% on the basis of entirely preliminary estimates), Tunisia ( -1,8%) and Egypt (-0,8%). In this group of countries, on the supply side, there was a significant drop in mining (Libya), manufacturing (Tunisia, Egypt) but also in services, especially in the tourism sector, with a 70% drop in Syria and over 30% in Tunisia and Egypt. On the demand side, investments and net exports contributed negatively to the formation of GDP, on which the degree of exposure to the international economy not favorable. While I private consumption, supported by fiscal policies to support household income and subsidies, have given, in the presence of rising unemployment rates, a positive contribution to sustaining demand and the domestic market. The countries invested only indirectly have seen a slowdown in the economy (this is the case of Algeria and Lebanon, with an increase in GDP of 2,4% and 1,5% respectively) or even, due to the combination of favorable factors, an acceleration of growth (this is the case of Jordan and Morocco). The countries not affected by the political upheavals, although sensitive to the worsening of the foreign economy, maintained high growth rates (+4,6% in Israel and +8,5% in Turkey).
From a financial point of view, there have been considerable repercussions, first of all on the public accounts. The support of household incomes due to the increase in food and energy prices has involved, without the counterbalance of profound structural reforms aimed at an efficient industrial and commercial strategy, a widening of the public deficit. Furthermore, deterioration of current account balances and decline in inflows of productive investment have resulted, in contexts of fixed or controlled floating exchange rates, where Israel is the only exception in the region, a contraction of foreign exchange reserves. With the deterioration of financial vulnerability indicators, the sovereign credit default swap spreads, while the rating agencies have revised their forecasts downwards. It then emerges that the medium-long term growth trend has been less accentuated and sustainable in countries characterized by a lower quality and economic efficiency of institutions. Here then is that a low degree of development of financial intermediation, with the consequent difficult access of SMEs to the credit markets, and ainadequate allocation policy among the social classes, where high inequality corresponds to the same political risk, are certainly among the determining factors that fuel uncertainty in most of the Med countries10.
