Mediobanca closed the first nine months of the 2021-2022 financial year with a net profit of 716 million, up 19% on a year ago and in line with expectations (696 million). But the attention of the market today is directed to the new rumors about the possibility farewell from Mediobanca to the Lion of Trieste, which holds about 13% of the company as well as 4,4% in securities lending, to bring peace within the shareholding structure between the two blocks of shareholders: on the one hand those led by Piazzetta Cuccia who supported the board's proposal ( resulted successful) and on the other the front of private individuals, led by Leonard of the Elder e Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, the latter reached 5,5% of Mediobanca's capital from the 3,043 it held. The stock is in positive territory in Piazza Affari: +0,61% to 9,84 euros for a capitalization of 8,51 billion.
After the Generali game, it would seem that the real battle will take place in Piazzetta Cuccia. According to Il Sole 24 Ore, the bank is apparently working on its exit from Generali (already explored in the past) in exchange for a large industrial operation in the managed savings which could involve Banca Generali, Mediolanum or Azimut. In this way Piazzetta Cuccia would transform a financial stake into an industrial one, while Caltagirone and Del Vecchio – shareholders respectively with 9,95% and 9,82% of Generali – would become the most important shareholders in the insurance group. But the hypothesis remains to be verified and the outcome uncertain, after the lesson of the General meeting in which the funds supported CEO Donnet, appreciating the guarantees of stability for the group.
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The rift between Generali's shareholders is profound and its recomposition, even within the board of directors, seems really remote. After months of friction and controversy, there is the risk of seeing new clashes and oppositions. And it will be precisely on Mediobanca that the decisive match will be played. A match scheduled for next October, when the board of directors will go towards renewal.
Mediobanca is not affected by the war: profit and revenues grow
For the investment bank, the fact of "not having any material exposure to Russia and Ukraine risk" made it possible to improve all revenue items, including the contribution of the stake in Generali, which brought in profits of 251 million (+26 %). With regard to 31 March 2022, the third quarter of its fiscal year (the institute in Piazzetta Cuccia closes its financial statements on 30 June) the institute achieved results above expectations, registering revenues for approximately 700 million euros (of which net commissions of 202 million euros) and a net profit of 190 million euros.
In the first nine months, revenues grew by 9,3% to 2.147,1 million euros, the Operating income by 13,4% to 994,5 million and theNet income by 18,5% to 715,9 million, with a cost/income ratio down to 44,6% (-1pp) and one profitability up to 10% ROTE (+1pp). The interest margin (+3,2% in the nine months ended 31 March) was driven by the rise in interest rates, but also by the recovery in consumer credit (+5%)
The capital base remains high, with a phase-in CET1 ratio at 15,3%, although down from 16,13% at the beginning of the year and from 16,17% at the end of December 2021, with a negligible impact from market volatility.
Mediobanca explained in a note that the fourth quarter, i.e. the current one, "started with the lively commercial activity of the previous ones" and in particular with a loan portfolio, especially in the consumer and in mortgage loans, expected to grow and which competes to the growth of the interest margin. The Investment and Corporate Banking pipeline remains “very good” and mainly not linked to market stability, as is the recurring component of Wealth Management revenues. The Cost/Income is expected to grow moderately, discounting the usual seasonal nature of the structure costs and the projects started.
Remuneration at 100% and annual profit seen on the rise
Mediobanca confirms the shareholder remuneration policy, with a cash payouts equal to 70% of profits. The institute is also in the process of a buyback on 3% of the capital, after 2% has already been repurchased" and has confirmed "a share of profits distributed to 70% of total proceeds, which, added to the payout of the buyback, ensures a remuneration of 100%".
The bank has also formulated forecasts on net income which "is expected to grow compared to last year with a contribution from the last quarter in line with the one just ended and only marginally impacted by a decidedly less favorable macroeconomic scenario". These accounting dynamics should allow the assets to “remain at high levels with a Cet1 index to queens higher than 14,5%”.
