The award-winning company Monge of Monasterolo Bormida, the Italian leader in pet food, certainly did a great deal when, with an investment of 57,8 million euros, it acquired the shareholding structure of Mediobanca just over the threshold of 1% of the capital, accumulating a package which, at current prices, is worth around 100 million. But the heirs of the small pet food empire, a solid family business which this year will invoice around 300 million euros, allocating all profits to reserves (debts are well below the ten million barrier) probably did not expect to be called to participate in risk of financial power, in the midst of a challenge which, comments Equita, "is very lively from a speculative point of view".
And instead it will be the Monges, who have always invested part of their profits in the bank in Piazzetta Cuccia (among the European leaders for the generosity of dividends, up to 6,5% the ECB certifies this morning), the white knights (or, given the profession, the guard dogs) called by Alberto Nagel for flesh out the shareholders' consultation agreement, dropped below the 10 percent threshold, after Edizione Holding, the Benettons' safe, withdrew from the "light" consultation pact that brings together the shareholders closest to management as opposed to the armies gathered by the Dolphin by Leonardo Del Vecchio, by far the first shareholder just under 20% and by his ally Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, who rose to 5% to give a hand to the owner of Essilor-Luxottica. The reason? Paraphrasing the Rosselli brothers, one could in fact say "today in Mediobanca, tomorrow in Generali" the real stake of the mother of the challenges of Italian finance which has pushed Generali's prices to their highest levels since 2010 and those of Piazzetta Cuccia, today +0,9, XNUMX%, tops .
But now? In view of the next stage, theMediobanca shareholders' meeting of 28 October (the date chosen by Enrico Cuccia in defiance of the anniversary of the hated leader's march on Rome), the contenders line up the pieces on the chessboard. Delfin broke the truce by asking to supplement the meeting agenda by proposing to "eliminate the statutory requirement according to which three directors (in the event that the board has more than thirteen members) must have been managers of the Mediobanca group for at least three years" and "also to increase the number of minority directors", with the provision that "several lists may contribute to the appointment of such directors". A torpedo against Nagel? Obvious conclusion, so obvious that the robust team of Del Vecchio's consultants (lawyer Sergio Erede and Vittorio Grilli, now JP Morgan, in the lead) immediately put their hands forward: "The proposal does not pursue the aim of replacing the current directors or bank managers, but rather to ensure that, from now on, they operate within a framework of corporate governance rules consistent with best practices and have strong incentives to focus on the creation of value for everyone the shareholders, leaving to the board of directors and the shareholders, as happens in any other company, the right to ultimately decide who should manage the bank". And Nagel seems to be playing along: we'll talk about it soon, he informs the banker's staff, as part of the governance reform. But in the meantime he sharpens his weapons by asking his friends, from the Gavios to the Lucchini group, to flesh out the pact while waiting for the assembly. In that forum, the questions that have so far remained hidden will echo.
It suits you, Nagel's friends will ask, a bank that is giving up its own independence? An institution which, as happened in the negotiations for Banca Generali, is vetoed by some shareholders, moreover determined to avenge the stoppage suffered at the time on the front of the city of health, Del Vecchio's mega project held back by Mediobanca? But, the answer from the Caltagirone/Del Vecchio front will be answered, what prospects does Mediobanca have if it continues to limit itself to sucking up the dividends of Generali, still today half of the profits of an investment bank what big business doesn't it do? Generali, forced not to ask for capital increases in order not to hurt the interests of the bank shareholder, continues to see opportunities to grow before her eyes without ever getting on the right tram. And so Allianz, Axa and Zurich are now light years ahead while, under the leadership of Donnet, the Lion does not go beyond the borders of the North East, those of Cattolica.
These will be the underlying themes of next spring's match, when it will be a question of confirming or not the French manager dear to Nagel, or conquering the Bastille of Trieste, after having weakened Generali's defences. How will it go? For now, of course there is that Del Vecchio and Caltagirone do not give up. And Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone bought another 0,19% of Generali according to internal dealing communications relating to operations carried out by Mantegna '87 Srl (500 thousand shares) and by Fincal (2,5 million shares). The total number of transactions brings the entrepreneur up to 6,38%, bringing the syndicate agreement with Delfin and the Crt Foundation to 12,80%.
Certainly there will be compromises, but it must be very clear that the balance has changed once and for all. Nagel, however, fought back for his part, acquiring with a securities loan (cost less than 10 million) 4,22% of Generali, graciously collected by Bnp Paribas among its customers, starting with the Axa, who probably don't like the awakening of the Lion, a possible protagonist of mergers on the market.
In short, between now and next April it will be hot on the Piazza Affari networks. And that's not all: a match of that caliber, which promises to change the very nature of the credit model in Italy, displacing the bank-centric tradition, cannot fail to have politics among the protagonists, starting with Mario Draghi. But it is too early to make any predictions because, as Marcello Messori rightly underlined, "for the moment, neither the current managers of Mediobanca, nor the current managers of Generali, nor their most active shareholders have made public strategic projects that clarify which could or should to be the business model of the two companies in post-pandemic European financial markets”. “In this regard – he added – I will limit myself to emphasizing two points. The Italian economy will be able to reduce its lag compared to the strong countries of the euro area and place itself on a path of sustainable development, only if it is able to make use of financial markets that direct the enormous wealth of the country towards the support of a radical reorganization of businesses industrial. And in this regard it is essential that, together with other important Italian and European financial groups, Mediobanca and Generali play active roles”.
And may the best man win.
