The third quarter closed for Mediobanca with a net profit soaring to 205 million euro: it is the best quarterly result of the last five years. Profits for the same period last year stood at $90,6 million. As the first nine months beat analysts' expectations: revenues increased by 19,5% to 1,51 billion, Roe increased by 8% and profits increased by 18% to 466 million (against 401 million expected). The boost came from the banking business which offset the lower contribution of the Principal Investing division (investments). For the managing director Alberto Nagel, who commented on the results this morning during the conference call with analysts, the quarter just ended was "very positive" and "represented a point of profitability".
And for the last part of the year, expectations are still positive. Nagel told analysts that Mediobanca counts on recording a good last quarter (the institution closes its financial statements in June). “We expect a good last quarter – he commented – which should be a good completion of the exercise. It is a quarter that for us often coincides with capital market operations and will also depend on the volatility of the markets, which was higher in April”.
So the manager confirmed the guidance of payout at 40%, but did not give details on the dividend policy. “It is premature to give indications – he explained – We have a 40% payout guidance and we won't change it, but punctual decisions depend not only on the end of the year, but also on the capital ratios”. "The topic of dividend distribution", she added, "is also under the attention of our new regulator". Which means caution.
On the front of capital ratios the nine-month numbers nevertheless gave indications of further strengthening: the phased-in Cet1 rose to 11,6% from 11,08% last June and the fully phased one to 12,7% from 12,5% .
GENERALI, ASSIGNMENT THROUGH ASSET EXCHANGE
As mentioned, the banking components more than offset the lower contribution from Principal Investing which discounted the lower contribution from Assicurazioni Generali to 134 million from 174 million. Il Leone has achieved the targets of the plan a year in advance and will present the new business plan in London on May 27th.
“Certainly – commented Nagel – we are very satisfied, with good expectations on the new plan to come and which will confirm this type of trend”, adding that “The results are positive, but what is more important is the strategic vision and the long term play, which is exactly what I had in mind three years ago when we convinced Mario Greco to join us”.
Nagel confirmed that 3% of Leo (now Mediobanca has 13,3% of the capital) will be sold in the next financial year 2015-16, more likely towards the end of the period and that the operation could take place through a swap with other assets. “I confirm that 3% will be sold in the next financial year – Nagel said – and that the hypothesis of a swap is on the table. We also expect a re-rating of the stock also after the work done by management and therefore our activity on the stock will not be at the beginning of the year but towards the end”.
On the table too the introduction of increased voting rights in Generali, for Nagel "an interesting and delicate subject" that must be shared with the main institutional investors "to understand if there is an alignment on everyone's part".
TELECOM, VIVENDI STABLE SHAREHOLDER EXCELLENT NEWS
RCS, BEWARE OF THE VALUE OF THE SHARE FOR THE SALE
In the quarter, the decline in profitability of Assicurazioni Generali (€10,8 million against €42,9 million in the same period last year) was offset by the profit on the repayment of the previously written-down Telco loan (€78 million) and by the capital gains on the sale of shares listed (23,3 million).
Also here Nagel confirmed his intention to sell the stake in Telecom Italia, currently held through Telco, after the latest approval from the Argentinean authority for the dissolution of the holding company. The sale of the stake, he said, "is not linked to the change in shareholding but to the authorisations".
For Telecom, Nagel then noted, the entry of Vivendi is excellent news. "The presence of Vivendi, which is a listed company with a robust balance sheet and which is led by an entrepreneur who has demonstrated that he can generate value, is excellent news" for the telephone company, noted the CEO of Mediobanca, adding that: " Having a stable shareholder like Vivendi will allow for a more constant long-term strategy precisely because it is supported by a stable shareholder”. Vivendi is led by Vincent Bolloré, a French entrepreneur who is also a major shareholder of Mediobanca.
Finally, regarding Rcs the sale of the remaining 6% (after the sales of the last few months), which in the past had been assumed by June, will depend on the value of the stock on the Stock Exchange. “Below a certain level we won't be in a hurry to sell the shares, above that we will complete” the sale, said Nagel, for whom the appointment of director Lucio Fontana is very positive.
