Decoupling is fashionable on the markets. The fate of stocks hit by the pandemic that wiped out entire sectors (-700 million tourists, air transport at the mercy of public aid) is separated from that of "stay at home" values, those, much less numerous, that allow you to work in remote. In the quarter just ended, both Microsoft's revenues and net profit thus rose, but the stock fell (-1,7%), because the forecasts for the near future under the grip of Covid-19 are not convincing.
Another decoupling concerns Asia, on its way out of the contagion and on its way to recovery, which is about to greet the landing in Shanghai and Hong Kong of the digital payments giant Ant Group, valued at 34 billion dollars at the time of the IPO. a figure that will lead Shanghai to undermine the primacy of the Nasdaq. The offer was fully booked yesterday, at the debut of the operation.
SHANGHAI HAS ALREADY COLLECTED 2020 BILLION IN 53
Since the beginning of the year, partly as a result of the political direction of the Beijing authorities, Shanghai has managed to collect almost 53 billion dollars, between primary and secondary. If we add the 48 billion of funding from Hong Kong and the 14 billion from Shenzen, we arrive at 115 billion dollars: a value that documents the rise of China, in economic and financial terms. This morning the stock exchanges underline the increase in the gap between the old and new economies.
Tokyo's Nikkei, a low-tech stock market, lost 0,4% in the final session. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock markets, one of the best stock exchanges in the world this year, with an increase of 15% which does not look bad in the face of the +21% of the Nasdaq, gains 0,7%. In Asia, the Kospi of Seoul also rose (+0,2%).
To meet the demand for liquidity, Hong Kong's monetary authorities injected local dollars 450 billion tonight, a record for a daily operation.
Chinese politics intervened to curb the strength of the yuan tonight. The foreign exchange authority has remodeled the calculation system which underlies the day's fixing: the exclusion of the so-called counter-cyclical factor leaves the commercial banks with the possibility of guiding the value of the currency downwards, better curbing any upward pressures.
MICROSOFT -1,7% DESPITE GOOD ACCOUNTS. TODAY IT'S APPLE'S TURN
Wall Street's S&P500 index future is down 0,5% this morning. The Dow Jones (-0,8%) and the S&P 500 (-0,3%) closed down yesterday evening. On the other hand, the Nasdaq rose (+0,64%), waiting for the accounts of Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet to be released today.
AMD fell 4,1% after the company, the architect of the new chips, bought Xilinx for $35 billion.
Brent oil fell by 1,5%, at 40,5 dollars. Yesterday at the close, crude oil in the North Sea had risen by 2%. American Petroleum estimates a huge increase in inventories in the United States for the past week: +4,6 million barrels.
Euro dollar at 1,178, down compared to yesterday, also due to the rumors about an upcoming total lockdown in France: today Macron speaks to the nation on TV.
SOS CREDIT: THE EU SUPERVISORY PROPOSES A NETWORK OF BAD BANK
A specter continues to haunt Europe. It is the Covid-19 that lives almost everywhere but it seems, judging by the trend of the infections, that it has chosen the Old Continent as its preferred home. And the consequences, two days after the meeting of the ECB directorate, are being felt more and more even on the markets. The Stock Exchanges burned last month's gains, the banks, as revealed by the ECB survey of 143 institutions in the Eurozone, expect a further tightening of credit conditions, given "the deterioration of the general economic prospects, the increase of credit risk and lower risk tolerance”. Andrea Enria, president of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, has already suggested the countermeasure: EU countries must create a network of national bad banks to absorb the expected wave of loans that will not be paid: another heavy challenge for Christine Lagarde.
BRUSSELS PAUSES 17 BILLION FROM THE SURE FUND
In fact, the EU Commission has disbursed a total of 17 billion euros to Italy, Spain and Poland in the first tranche of financial support to the Member States under the SURE instrument. As for the Next Generation Eu "package", Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni then observes that "more can be done to respond to the economic emergency due to the second wave of the pandemic without however calling into question what has already been decided".
MILAN BURNS THE EARNINGS OF OCTOBER
Milan (-1,53%) returned to a one-month low at 18.654 points; Frankfurt -1%; Paris -1,8%; Madrid -2,2%; London -1,1%. Since the beginning of the year, the Ftse Mib has lost 20,60%, but it is not the worst stock exchange in the euro area; Madrid loses 30%, Paris loses like us, Frankfurt stops at -9%.
London's FTSE 100, positive until mid-session, lost 1,1%. However, HSBC advances (+3,4%). The Anglo-Chinese bank has published results for the quarter that are less negative than expected, but together with these there is the announcement of a radical reorganization of activities, a real change in the business model. The company intends to grow in the commission segment, with commissions becoming the main source of revenue.
In the City, BP closed in the red (-1,5%), from +3% in the morning, on the day of the publication of the quarterly data. Net income stood at 86 million dollars: the consensus was expecting a loss of 120 million.
This morning Deutsche Bank presented its accounts for the quarter: the net result is positive for 182 million euros, out of 5,9 billion euros in revenues. The company confirmed its targets for 2020, including that on credit losses. Investment Banking assets are expected to be "significantly" higher than in 2019.
PEACE TESTS BETWEEN LVMH AND TIFFANY
Evidence of peace between Lvmh, the luxury giant led by Bernard Arnault, and Tiffany. The Duelists are in talks to settle the $16 billion takeover dispute at a lower price than initially agreed.
The Banco de Santander is slowing down (-1,46%) after a bubbly start (+3%). The Turkish lira plunges again, at historic lows of 8,19 against the dollar and 9,69 against the euro.
SPREAD TO 131, TODAY THE AUCTION ON SIX-MONTH BOTS
Bonds are stable: the spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration rises to 131 basis points (+0,86%), with rates slightly down (0,71% for the Italian ten-year).
On the primary side, the Treasury auctioned 750 million euro of indexed BTPs maturing in May 2026, at a gross yield of -0,15%. Requests amounted to 1,164 billion euros. The Ctz is also being issued, maturing in September 2022, with a yield of -0,265% for 2,5 billion euros with a yield at its lowest since April 2018.
Today will be the turn of the six-monthly Bot, offered for 6,5 billion euros. The medium-long auction is on the agenda for Thursday, in which the Treasury will make available up to 6,5 billion in the reopening of the 5 and 10-year BTPs and the Ccteu.
Greece placed 812,5 million in 26-week government bonds. The yield fell to -0,12% from the previous -0,10.
CAMPARI AND DIASORIN, TWO FLASHES IN THE DARK
The balance sheet of the blue chips of Piazza Affari is really meager. The most brilliant stock was Campari (+1,9%). In the first nine months of the year, the Milanese company recorded sales of 1,282 billion euros, down by 1,6% overall, while in the third quarter the figure rose by 12,9%, from 455,6 to 513,8 million euros.
Diasorin also rose (+1,8%9, after the diagnostic company announced the launch with CE marking of the new test for the detection of the Sars-CoV-2 antigen in symptomatic patients, directly from nasal and nasopharyngeal swabs. Equita estimates "that the new test could bring a contribution of 12 million in 2020 (1% of turnover) and 96 million in 2021 (9% of turnover)".
PIRELLI SWENDS, AUTOMOTIVE ROLLS BACK
Industrialists were down, feeling the effects of the gloomy outlook on the global economic cycle. Pirelli was the worst with a drop of 4,6%. Leonardo loses 1,8%. As of 22 October, the US fund BlackRock held a potential stake of 6,384% in the company, of which 1,351% with voting rights, Consob announced.
The automotive sector is weak throughout Europe: FCA falls by 0,5% after yesterday's gains in the wake of expectations for the EU's green light for the merger with PSA. Cnh -2%.
DAIMLER AT 20% ASTON MARTIN. PININFARINA ENGINEERING CLOSES
Daimler's stake in Aston Martin grows to 20%. The house of James Bond's car will be able to use the technology of the German group in the electric sector.
Meanwhile, Mahindra's Indians have decided to liquidate Pininfarina Engineering after two years of losses due to the absence of prospects on the car market due to the pandemic.
MEDIOBANCA'S PROFIT INCREASES, DEL VECCHIO GOES GREEN TO NAGEL
On the eve of the appointment of the new board, Mediobanca (-2,5%) announced a third quarter profit of 200 million (+43%) against estimates of 140 million and the increase in the share of profits allocated to shareholders from 50% to 70% (as soon as the ECB removes the March vetoes for Covid). No surprises of any kind are foreseen on the appointments, so much so that the outgoing board of directors could be confirmed for 13/15, starting with the president Renato Pagliaro and the CEO Alberto Nagel.
“With Delfin, as with other shareholders, we have a constructive and continuous dialogue”, added the outgoing CEO. The support of Delfin will go to the Assogestioni list, to sanction the "market" behavior of the holding company. Among revenues, the interest margin rose by 2%, and commissions by 17%, also thanks to the strong performance of investment banking activities, where mandates on the major Italian extraordinary transactions weigh heavily.
Heavy losses for other banks. In particular for Bper (-6,25%) and Unicredit (-3,94%). Intesa San Paolo (-2,38%) and Banco Bpm (-2,03%) also fell. Landslide Banca Monte Paschi (-5,08%).
ATLANTIA -2,2%. CDP DOES NOT INCREASE THE PRICE
Atlantic -2,2%. Cdp has come up with the detailed offer for the acquisition of 88,06% of Autostrade per l'Italia (“Aspi”). Cdp Equity will be the first shareholder with 40% of the vehicle through which the investment will be made (“BidCo”), will appoint chairman and chief executive officer and will be joined by Blackstone Infrastructure Partners (“Blackstone”) and Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets (“ Macquarie"), which will initially each hold 30%. The offer does not mention the price: an agreement on the price would have been reached which provides that all of Aspi is worth between 8,5 and 9,5 billion euros, but there is a minimal possibility of being able to revise the fork upwards after a two very close technical diligence, four weeks, which would then be refined over the next six. Today the company's Board of Directors will meet again, suspended yesterday to arrive at a definitive answer shared with MIT. Some voices speak of a limitation on the average annual increase in tariffs: something that could be between 1,6 and 1,7% (now it is 1,75%). The technicians are also at work on the other points raised by the Art. But the road is still long.
Among the mid caps, Ascopiave made progress (+1,67%), after the assembly of AscoHolding, the main shareholder with 52% of the shares, approved the authorization to the Board of Directors for the purchase/sale of shares of the subsidiary up to 5% of the capital.
