Peace in sight between Mediaset e Vivendi? It is legitimate to doubt it, after four years of war fought, from that 26 July 2016 when Bolloré returned the share in Premium to the sender, starting the climb to the Biscione. In the first instance, Mediaset's Board of Directors rejected Vivendi's peace offers but, at the same time, said it was willing to open discussions on an alternative project in the interest of all shareholders. And the markets seem to believe it. After yesterday's 9% surge, Mediaset shares are tense this morning, with an increase of about 2%, awaiting a press release which, according to rumors, could already confirm tonight that the two enemies sat down at the negotiating table with the aim of restoring a project dear to Pier Silvio Berlusconi: the construction of an industrial alliance with a view to building a European television pole.
In truth, it seems impossible that the army of lawyers fielded between Milan, Paris, the Amsterdam bar (headquarters of the holding company which, according to Mediaset's wishes, should bring together Telecinco, the Italian networks and perhaps Prosieben) as well as the court of Madrid, is ready to lay down its arms. Yet, just the recent decision of the Spanish judges who have decided to maintain the suspension of the Media For Europe project so dear to Mediaset may have marked the turning point.
The prospect of Berlusconi's European network has vanished, at least in the short term, just as Bolloré and Arnaud de Puyfontaine have set aside their dreams of conquest for some time and are looking for a plan B. This would be the motivation for the letter arriving from Paris in which the French tycoon, boosted by Universal's income, opens up to the birth of Dutch holding where Bolloré would have a seat on the board and precise guarantees on governance in favor of the minority. Naturally the two contenders would have to lay down the hatchet renouncing disputes initiated in recent years, starting from the claim for damages made by the Fininvest group.
In short, it is a complex menu to digest for the Alfa board of directors, which must also evaluate the possible alternatives: give birth to Mfe without Spanish Mediaset or wait for the sentence, yet another, this time from the Dutch court. But in doing so, with reference to reference, the position of both, especially the Berlusconi house, on the TV front weakens, while a common line would be needed to cope with the overwhelming power of streaming. Today's British data leave little doubt: the streaming giants (Netflix, Amazon and Disney+) are scorched earth with an overall average audience of 12 million users, including 34% under 35 years old. Given the premises, war is no longer worth it.
