It is such an important eve that it deserves a cake with 20 candles, as many as the record points that the Dow Jones could celebrate today, the day of the discount rate increase. But, big surprise, in the midst of so much turmoil, Piazza Affari wins no small part of the markets' attention. Investors, after the post-referendum rally, are still not satisfied with Italian assets. Merit of Unicredit, protagonist of the most important capital increase proposal in Italian history, but also of the surprise blitz of Vincent Bolloré, a Breton privateer attacking Mediaset. All while waiting for the last attempt by Monte Paschi to avoid the state umbrella.
“I imagine that – writes Giuseppe Sersale of Anthilia – in the light of the demand for bank assets (Ftse Mib Banks +5,8% at the end of the session) the market is beginning to savor the idea that Montepaschi too can find investors, obtaining the recapitalization without intervention state. And maybe the Venetians. Only the performance of Banco Popolare and Popolare Milano is out of place, probably weighed down by the comparison of their coverage ratios with those designed by Unicredit”.
DOW JONES TOWARDS 20 POINTS: 0,25% MORE EXPENSIVE MONEY
But the surprises follow one another at the end of a year that is reserving great emotions at the end of the race, after months of low volatility and a lot of boredom. Much of the credit (so to speak) goes to the initiatives of the new US president: who would have ever thought that the secretary of state would become a major oil tanker, already number one at Exxon (+1,8% yesterday), like the great friend of Putin Rex Wayne Tillerson? Wall Street, for now, is applauding.
According to Meteo Borsa, the day opens with a waiting session for the Asian stock exchanges, in view of the Fed's decisions which will be communicated at 20 pm (Italian time), before Janet Yellen's press conference. The market assumes a 0,25% increase, followed in 2017 by at least two more increases. The equity indexes moved little: the Tokyo Stock Exchange remained unchanged at the end of the session, minimal changes also in Seoul and Mumbai. Chinese stock markets are positive, Hong Kong's Hong Seng index gains 0,6%.
OIL IN RETREAT. FLY SAIPEM
Brent oil hit a July high at $56 a barrel yesterday, but then erased the gains and reversed course overnight. It traded at 55,4 dollars a barrel this morning, down 0,9%. The International Energy Agency forecasts in its bulletin that the markets will pass from a situation of surplus to a situation of deficit in the first part of 2017. In Milan Eni +1%. Saipem rebounds (+5,1%). Morgan Stanley raised its assessment to overweight and the target price to 0,75 euro (+114% from the previous target).
TODAY THE GREAT TECH FROM TRUMP
On Wall Street, the climb of the Dow Jones to the psychological peak of 20 points held the court. The index stopped last night at 19.911,21, with an increase of 0,58% (+9% since the election of the president), behind the S&P 500 (+0,61%) and the Nasdaq (+0,95, XNUMX%).
The tech sector is in great evidence on the eve of the meeting of the big names in the sector with Donald Trump who will ask them for plans to create jobs. Apple rose by 1,69%, Microsoft +1,67%.
GOOGLE LAUNCHES WAYMO, THE SOCIETY OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING
Alphabet-Google's self-driving car technologies (+0,87%) have been concentrated into a new company called Waymo: "It's an indication of the maturity of our technology," said John Krafcik, executive director of the project. “We can imagine that our self-driving technology will be used in different areas.” In May this year, Google signed a deal with Fiat Chrysler to use its technology in all new Chrysler Pacifica hybrid minivans starting in 2017. This is the first time Google has worked directly with an automaker. The car could be presented in January at CES, the Las Vegas technology show.
MILAN STILL LEADER, THE SPREAD IS DOWN
Between corporate battles (Mediaset) and credit restructuring (Unicredit) Piazza Affari confirmed its leadership in Europe in the day of the confidence of the House in the new government. The Ftse Mib index closed at 18.828, up 2,49%. The other price lists of the Old Continent are more detached: Paris +0,99%, Frankfurt +0,95%, London +1,26% and Madrid +1,68%.
While awaiting the Fed, the euro traded this morning at 1,0625, not far from the lows of the last 20 months (1,0505) . The ten-year BTP yield fell to 1,90% from 2,02% yesterday. The spread with the Bund narrows to 151 basis points, the lowest in the last month. Instead, the gap between the German Bund and the US bond widened, rising to 191 points.
MEDIASET +31,86%: THE WAR OF THE TITANS STARTS
Under the spotlights in Piazza Affari the battle of the giants: the challenger Vincent Bolloré, who confirms himself as a bold and unscrupulous raider, and the old lion, Silvio Berlusconi, called back from the political front to defend the heart of the empire.
Vivendi said last night that they already have reached a share of 12,32% of the capital in Mediaset, up 31,86% in Piazza Affari. For now, Fininvest has chosen to take legal action, presenting a complaint for market manipulation against the transalpine company that controls Telecom Italia to the Milan Public Prosecutor's Office (and for information to Consob).
According to the Biscione, the French about-face in the summer on the sale of Premium was "part of a very specific plan: to create the conditions to artificially lower the value of the stock and launch what appears to be a real hostile takeover at discount prices" . Meanwhile, Fininvest itself, which has called on Intesa and Unicredit to support it, has increased its stake to 39,7%, to which must be added 3% of treasury shares.
What will be the next moves? Bolloré will probably stop at around 20% at first, preparing for a long positional war, as he has already done in other games in the past.
MARKETS PROMOTE UNICREDIT CUTS
Yesterday was also a field day for Unicredit, which presented the expected 13 billion euro capital increase in London, the most demanding operation in Italian financial history. The stock, which started out lower, gained share during the day, to then close up by 15,92%, at 2,81 euros. The BoD will propose to the shareholders' meeting, called for 12 January, to group the ordinary and savings shares in the ratio of 1 new share for every ten existing ones.
The plan envisages 1,7 billion savings per year, equal to 15% of the 2015 cost base. The reduction in personnel will total 14.000 units, 6.500 more than already announced. 883 branches in Italy will be closed for a saving of 650 million euros.
The Bank has undertaken to carry out a radical cleaning in the loan portfolio. Coverage on non-performing loans will be over 57%, coverage on non-performing loans at 38% and coverage on non-performing loans at 63%. A total of 17,7 billion of non-performing loans will be sold over the next three years. At the end of the plan, Unicredit will find itself at the top of the ranking for the coverage of non-performing, doubtful and stranded loans.
At the end of 2019, Common Equity Tier 1 will rise over 12,5% with a net result expected to be 4,7 billion euros with a profitability of over 9% at the Rote level (return on tangible assets).
Among the first comments, Banca Imi (rating hold, target price 2,4 euro) speaks of cuts in operating costs beyond expectations while the analysts of Banca Akros (accumulated ratings, target price 2,6 euro) underline that it is not possible to see shortly "almost no revenue growth, because the plan is focused on cutting costs and improving asset quality and capital levels". Websim points out that "pending better times, shareholders will remain dry-mouthed for coupons in 2017, in 2018 the payout will be only a fifth of the profit".
Fineco Bank also rose (+7,7%). Jean-Pierre Mustier stated that, with the sale of Pioneer, the sales campaign is over. The CEO thus confirmed his intention to keep his stake, equal to 35%. There was the fear that the first shareholder could further reduce the share, also eliminating some advantages of an industrial nature.
MPS, LAST CALL BEFORE THE STATE
Today the spotlights move to Monte Paschi (+1,29%). At 14.30 pm the board of directors will meet in Siena to start the update of the recapitalization plan. If in the meantime the go-ahead from Consob arrives, the board should launch the new version of the bailout: reopening of the conversion of subordinates with the involvement of retail and private placement with institutional investors including the Qatari fund (which could put a billion of Euro). The most significant difference between this new version of the bailout and the previous one, however, is the absence of a guarantee from the banks in the consortium, which will only deal with the placement.
In the meantime, the ECB has postponed to 28 February the deadline by which the bank will have to submit a strategic and operational plan to the central bank, which indicates the quantitative objectives for the reduction of non-performing loans.
Among the other banks, Banca Mediolanum +1,3%, Intesa +3,8%, Ubi Banca +3,4%, Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna +2,1%.
BULL DAY FOR RCS, UTILITIES AND LUXURY
Luxury is doing well: Ferragamo +2,4%, Luxottica +1,9%. Among the industrial companies, Stm +1,9%, Leonardo in parity and Prysmian +1,8%. The utilities are also brilliant: Atlantia +2,4%, Snam +3,6%, Hera +3,22%, Italgas 2,8%. Yesterday it made its debut in the Erg sector (+2,25%). Rcs advances by 5,9%. Among the small caps, Isagro +11,9%.
