Le raw material have perhaps reached the peak of the quotations, but enter them in investment portfolios next to the shares will still have for some time a stabilizing value. He writes it Alessandro Fugnoli, Kairos strategist, in the last episode of his column "The red and the black".
After a phase of high volatility, raw materials “have in fact stabilized – reads the analysis – The market is balancing their potential scarcity with the slowdown in demand that will follow the slowdown in growth. The effect is a decline in volatility".
And precisely stability is the most important value to be sought on the market in this phase of great uncertainty, dominated by only apparent calm. In the war between Russia and Ukraine - Fugnoli underlines again - the parties have not yet weakened enough to pave the way for diplomatic compromise.
The war is still in the escalation stage
This means "that the willingness to fight has not diminished and that the idea that with an extra effort we can win will continue to prevail - writes Kairos's strategist - The line of least resistance remains that of more sanctions, more weapons, more military coordination, not more negotiations. We are still in the building phase, that of escalation”.
Russia: the damages caused by the sanctions are less than expected
So far, in fact, "Russia avoided a ruble crash and maintains a large current account surplus – continues Fugnoli – Loads of coal and oil, with more tortuous and expensive routes, still manage to be exported. Gas continues to move from Siberia to Europe. Inflation is going up, of course, but not much more than in the rest of the world”.
In the West, too, do not panic
As for the West, “if Russia was counting on panic in Western markets and an abrupt halt in the global growth cycle, the balance sheet is disappointing for her - concludes Fugnoli - After the initial fear, the stock exchanges have regained a certain composure, while the estimates of GDP for 2022, although corrected downwards, still have a largely positive sign in America. For its part, Europe is preparing for a phase of great uncertainty, but the delayed positive effect of the fiscal and monetary policies of the pandemic two-year period means that the basic scenario is still one of growth".
