September is still very hot for raw materials. In recent weeks the gas and the consequent electricity price they continue to record very significant increases with extremely substantial fluctuations closely linked to the conflict in Ukraine. Other commodities reflect extraordinary increases compared to pre-Covid, albeit less disproportionate. This is what the Assolombarda Study Center notes, specifying that geopolitical tensions pushed natural gas to new historic highs in August (346,5 euros per megawatt hour on 26 August, about 17 times the average price in January 2020 and 30 times the pre covid at 11,2 euros), dragging the price of electricity to exceptionally high levels.
"A 'perfect storm' could occur in the autumn with heavy repercussions on companies, which are having difficulty managing costs and entering into contracts for the new energy year". To sound the alarm is Alessandro Spada, president of Assolombarda.
Spada on the gas emergency: "Urgent measures are needed"
For this reason, Assolombarda is urging the EU and the Draghi government to introduce urgent measures, "to avert halved production or even closures", such as "the ceiling on the price of gas at a European level, the extension of the tax credit for energy efficiency investments and a rationing plan”, continued Spada, adding that saving businesses is, today, a matter of national security: it is an issue that we are bringing also to the attention of the main political leaders in view of the forthcoming elections; we will continue to do so tonight on the occasion of the meeting in Assolombarda with the Secretary of Action, Carlo Calenda”, added the president of the Association.
The analysis of the Assolombarda study center on raw materials and gas
Energy products are among the commodities that recorded the greatest increases. Like gas also theelectric energy it followed a similar trend, with the Single National Price (PUN) which, after reaching a maximum of 29 euro per megawatt hour on 740,1 August, decreased although it too remained very volatile. In the second week of September, for example, it was between 400 and 500 euros per megawatt hour.
As regards the Oil prices, Brent has grown steadily in the last year and a half up to the peak of 123,6 dollar/barrel on 8 June 2022. The appreciation of the dollar against the euro (up to parity) has contributed to the increase in quotations in euros up to the achievement of price levels very similar to quotations in dollars.
The increases in the prices of agricultural raw materials
As for the prices of raw materials in the agri-food chain, heavily impacted by the war in Ukraine, the price of wheat it settled around 8 euro/bushel in the summer months (-36,7% from the peak). Instead, the price of corn, after having decreased to a low of 5,54 euros/bushel on 22 July, it increased again to 7 euros/bushel on 12 September.
On the oil front there is a substantial normalization. L'Palm oil it fell below 1.000 euros per ton during the summer months and recorded a variation of -45,6% from the peak. The price ofsoybean oil, on the other hand, after having also decreased compared to spring 2022, it has returned to rise slightly in the last month, marking a more contained variation compared to the maximum (-22,1% on 12 September) and +126,3% compared to pre covid value.
The price increases of industrial metals
Among ferrous metals, steel, after a constant decline, has stabilized and fluctuates around 800 euros per ton, a value that represents +50,6% compared to the pre-covid value. Furthermore, the slowly decreasing price of iron ore fluctuates around 100 euros per ton, or +23,3% of the pre-covid value.
On the non-ferrous metals front, the nickel has completely reabsorbed the shock of the outbreak of the conflict which had led to the suspension of trading on the London Metal Exchange (-40,0% from the peak), with a price now standing at around 22-23 thousand euros per tonne, equal to +74,4% compared to January 2020. The aluminum price, which grew steadily until the beginning of March 2022, has now returned to the levels of the end of 2021 (2.253,3 euros per tonne on 12 September, +41,2% compared to pre-covid). The copper price, after having reached a low of 6.958 euros per tonne on 15 July, it is on the rise slightly, in fact returning to the levels of the end of June (7.903 on 12 September). The zinc price, after the peaks in mid-April, fluctuates at lower levels, between 3.000 and 3.600 euros per tonne. The cobalt price after a sharp reduction between the end of April and the end of August, it stabilized at around 50.000 euros per tonne even if it is still at high prices compared to the pre-pandemic, +101,7%. Among the strategic raw materials for the energy transition, the molybdenum recorded a constant price increase during 2021 and until May 2022; subsequently, it decreased to a minimum of 13,63 euro/pound on 2 August, to then increase slightly again to 16,58 euro/pound on 5 September. With regard to lead e silver, prices have recently stabilized respectively at around +10% and +20% compared to pre-covid.
The increases in the prices of agricultural-industrial raw materials
Il price of wood it has dropped markedly in recent months, recording a -59,1% compared to the peak since the beginning of the conflict. Finally, the price of cotton, after the sharp drop at the end of June which brought it back to pre-conflict levels, fluctuates between 1,05 and 1,25 euro/pound.
