It was a debut under the banner of the Bull: the Italian Stock Exchange achieved an abundant rise of 2,3% on the wave of the brilliant debut of Banco Bpm. But also the good performance of Fiat Chrysler, confirming the recovery in manufacturing. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones crossed the peak of 20 points during Friday's session. US employment grows less than expected, on the other hand wages rise. This is excellent news, as are the signs of a recovery in prices both in the United States and in Europe. The horizon of the markets looks serene on the eve of the first real tests of 2017.
THE DOLLAR IS RISING AGAIN IN ASIA. SIDNEY RECORDS
The Asian price lists are positive. In the absence of Tokyo, which was closed for holidays, the stock exchanges in the Asia Pacific area (+0,4%) opened with a plus sign following the closure of Wal Street on Friday. Sydney +0,8%, the highest for 18 months. Hong Kong is more cautious (+0,4%), affected by the rise in the dollar. Seoul's Kospi index gains 0,2%, while the South Korean currency depreciates against the dollar to 1.207 (+1,3%).
The swing of the Chinese currency continues, losing ground on the US currency: the dollar-yuan exchange rate goes to 6,88 from 6,84 at the close. The yuan lost 0,9% against the dollar on Friday, the largest negative change in the last 12 months. Today, the Beijing tabloid Daily Global, the party's unofficial spokesman, threatens "imminent retaliation" after the meeting in Houston between the president of Taiwan Tsang and members of the new president's staff.
Oil this morning in the red: Brent at 56,84 dollars, Wti at 53,70 on the wave of the strengthening of the dollar. The recovery of Iranian exports also weighs, thanks to the derogation sanctioned by the Opec agreements and the recovery of the production of American shale oil. The future of the London Stock Exchange marks a rise of 0,2%.
FCA MOVE NEW INVESTMENTS FROM MEXICO TO MICHIGAN
Fiat Chrysler, at the end of a triumphal week on the stock exchange, parades in Detroit at the most important auto show in the world. Sergio Marchionne has decided to play in advance by adapting to the new Washington doctrine. Yesterday, the house announced a billion-dollar investment and 2 hires for new plants in Ohio and Michigan for the production of the new Jeep SUV. Production of the Ram pickup may also soon leave Mexico for Michigan. Lying knowing that it was lying, Fiat Chrysler explained that the decision was not linked to political reasons. But the move comes after the tweets with which Donald Trump has targeted the four-wheeler industry, "guilty" of having concentrated too many investments in Mexico.
The reactions of the big names were varied: GM responded in kind to Trump, Toyota did the same (however paying a high price on the Tokyo Stock Exchange), while Ford retreated by canceling an investment below the Rio Bravo and announcing an increase in hiring in Michigan.
AND GOOGLE PRESENTS SELF-DRIVEN PACIFIC
It is not the only novelty from FCA. Yesterday, still in Detroit, John Krafcik, number one at Waymo (the new Google company dedicated to mobility) presented Pacifica, an FCA minivan adapted for autonomous driving. By February the car will make its debut on the roads of Arizona and California.
Thus the anticipation for the press conference that Marchionne will hold in Detroit on Wednesday the 11th is growing, already strong after the performance of the stock which racked up 5 sessions in Piazza Affari and Wall Street under the banner of an upward trend, reaching almost 10 euros with an increase of 13,5%. The rally can be explained in large part by the flurry of promotions from analysts, including Evercore and Mediobanca Securities.
The latest came from Goldman Sachs which has included the FCA share in the 'Conviction buy list' with a price target that goes from 9,9 to 16,5 euros: the broker is convinced that Marchionne's latest act, leader of the group since 2003, will be to free the Agnelli family company from debt already by 2018.
UBI TO THE GOOD BANKS, BPER ON CARIFE
The banking sector remains the center of attention in Piazza Affari. It will be an important week, also on a political level, for Monte Paschi for which two state-guaranteed bonds are already in the works for an amount of 4 billion to be issued between January and February.
Meanwhile, after the record debut (+26,5%) of the stock, attention is growing on the balance of Banco Bpm, now the third largest Italian bank. But the spotlight today will shift to Ubi (+13,5% during the week): today the institution led by Victor Massiah should take the decisive step towards control of three of the four good banks (Pop. Etruria, Banca Marche and Carichieti) . Barring sensational surprises, the US funds will renounce the purchase of the bad debts of the institutions, therefore the offer of the Lombard Bank will remain unrivaled. Ubi is preparing to take over the banks at the symbolic price of one euro, plus the preventive sale of further non-performing loans. Only then will the necessary recapitalization be carried out. Similar path for the purchase of Carife by Bper (-1,4% on Friday).
BANCHE VENETE, TODAY THE PROPOSAL TO SHAREHOLDERS
No less important is the consignment of the Veneto banks, destined, at least so it is hoped, to land on the Stock Exchange within the year after a navigation that is likely to be complicated. This morning in Padua the top management of Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca, both controlled by the Atlante Fund, will present their offer to the shareholders (almost 200 in all) overwhelmed by the crisis of the institutions that are about to merge. But first it will be necessary to close the game with the shareholders, who will be offered a refund of 15% of the value of the shares for a value of 600 million.
During 2017, the states of the Eurozone will ask the markets for around 900 billion with medium and long-term issues, around 30 billion more than in the past year. Meanwhile, the US banks, with the intention of raising as much money as possible before the rate increase, have already placed bonds for 42 billion dollars. But at the top of the list of borrowers is the Italian Treasury which, to meet the amount of repayments to be made within the year (plus the 20 billion for bank bailouts) will have to ask for between 255 and 271 billion (the definitive program has not yet been disclosed) against 185 in France, 160 billion in Germany and 120 in Spain. Tonight, the Italian Treasury will announce the amount of the BTP auction on Thursday 12. The day before, 11 January, there will be the placement of 7 billion 12-month BOTs (against a similar amount maturing).
US QUARTERLY REPORTS LAUNCH. TODAY THE DATA OF THE GERMAN INDUSTRY
The parade of US quarterly reports begins, as per tradition, with Alcoa's accounts, and then continues throughout the month (140 companies expect the board to be appointed by the end of January). In the spotlight during the week the 2016 accounts of the big banks, starting with those of Bank of America and Wells Fargo due out on Friday. According to analysts, financial sector accounts should close the year with an increase of 11% compared to twelve months ago.
Donald Trump will hold his first press conference since his election on Wednesday. At the center of attention will be the issue of Russian interference in the race for the White House, but there will be no shortage of news on tax matters, business incentives and international relations, with China in the lead.
After the data on the labor market (156 hirings less than expected, but wages accelerating by 2,9%) operators focus their attention on the interventions of Fed members, starting with Janet Yellen herself who will speak in Washington. Eric Rosengreen (Boston Fed) and James Bullard (Saint Louis) will also speak. Among the statistics, the figure on the trend in consumption stands out, seen as growing by 0,4% but conditioned by the poor results of traditional commerce starting with Macy's.
On the Eurozone front, attention will be paid to the German industrial production data for November: numbers are expected to rise sharply after the slump in the summer.
