A weak and uncertain future scenario due to war, inflation and climate. It is a picture of fragility that emerges from the Risk Map 2023 di Sace, which outlines as usual the risk profiles for companies that export and invest worldwide in about 200 foreign markets.
In the last three years, the world context has been characterized by three exceptional shocks: pandemic emergency, Russia-Ukraine war with consequent energy and food crisis, return of sustained inflation and end of ultra-expansionary monetary policies. Without forgetting the increasingly frequent extreme natural events linked to climate change.
Risk map 2023, Sace: "Stable fragility"
In this baseline scenario of economic cycle weakness, theworld inflation is estimated to be down around 5% for 2023, the growth of world GDP it is expected to drop to 1,3%, more than two percentage points lower than the pre-Russian-Ukrainian conflict projections and global trade will remain substantially unchanged according to Oxford Economics estimates. The volumes of international trade in goods and services will be most affected: the former are affected by the weakness of demand as well as a physiological slowdown after the very positive performances of the last two years; the latter will continue to benefit from the recovery of tourist flows and activities related to travel and the hospitality channel. However, a greater than expected easing of inflationary pressures is increasing the likelihood of an improving scenario.
In the world, stable credit risks, but a fragile picture
Out of 194 countries analysed, the level of credit risk decreases for 57, 72 countries remain stable, while an increase is recorded in 65. In particular, in the countries of emerging Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States the credit risk "is affected by the heavy escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war". More generally, the analysts explain, the main advanced geographies "present an unchanged credit profile, with slowing growth and public finances held back by the burden of supporting households and businesses due to the pandemic and high energy bills", as in the case Of Germany e France. Well Portugal e Greece, which last year repaid its debt to the International Monetary Fund early and exited the European Commission's surveillance programme.
In Middle East, producers of energy commodities recorded an immediate benefit from the increase in prices, with positive effects on public finances, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. well theIndia which thanks to the “progressive fiscal consolidation and robust economic growth” is positioned among the best performers which together with Vietnam , UAE United, Brazil e Mexico these are some of the markets that according to the study offer opportunities for Italian companies. Banking and corporate risks are on the rise in countries such as the China, characterized by a high level of private debt. And the possible implications of the ongoing tensions in the Taiwan Strait between Beijing and Taipei should not be overlooked.
Political and climate risks worsen
On the other hand, in sharp deterioration at a global level are the political risks. Indicators here include the risks of war, civil unrest and political violence, the risks of expropriation and breach of contract, and the risks of restrictions on the transfer and convertibility of currencies. Of the 194 countries analyzed by Sace, 35 are improving, 71 are stable and 88 are worsening. In emerging Europe and the CIS, conflict has increased the risk in Russia, Belarus (both at 97), in Eastern Europe and in the CIS region and has contributed to exacerbate all those tensions already present in Kosovo (71) Serbia (50) Moldova (64) Bosnia (66) Azerbaijan (59) and Armenia (65) or to increase dissent towards regimes such as in Turkmenistan (81)
In Africa, the effects of the lack of food raw materials and social protests are noted as in tunisia, Egypt e Nigeria (respectively at 76, 71 and 84). Also worsening South Africa (53). Instead, the economies of the Gulf are improving, therefore Water (21) Saudi Arabia (41) and Oman (44) who benefit from greater availability of hard currency thanks to commodity revenues. In Latin america social and territorial inequalities are felt. Instead, in Asia the picture remains more stable, but the persistent and growing tensions between China (41) and Taiwan (20) should not be overlooked.
even the risk of climate change marks new deteriorations, albeit with some geographical differences. The indicators show a partial improvement driven by renewables in Europe, Latin America and Asia, driven by China. North America is also making progress thanks to the progress recorded by the USA and Canada. Brazil confirms itself close to the most virtuous countries on a global scale thanks also to the substantial contribution of hydroelectric power and the expansion of solar power.
On the other hand, worsening in countries like the Tajikistan (98) and the Kyrgyzstan (83). Asia is the most exposed to the danger of adverse natural phenomena due to temperatures rising twice as fast as the global average. In Latin america there is a not particularly high level of risk. Finally, in Africa, drought is the main alarm, especially for Egypt (32) tunisia (32) and Morocco (37)
Ricci (Sace): "Priority to invest in sustainability and transition"
“Tools such as our risk map are today more than ever essential for Italian companies to continue growing on the markets in a competitive, healthy and sustainable way. Credit, political and climate risks interact with each other and must be read in an integrated manner, but the message strongly emerges that sustainability and transition are essential priorities in which to invest in order to develop resilience and build paths of future growth for companies and for our Village". - he has declared Alessandra Ricci, Chief Executive Officer of Sace.
Terzulli (Sace): "The greatest risks come from political uncertainty and the climate"
"The 2023 Risk Map shows a general stability of the global credit risk framework, without however showing the hoped-for trend reversal after last year's marked increases - he declared Alexander Terzulli, chief economist of Sace -. While this stability is good news because, despite the adverse geopolitical circumstances, the major economies have managed to maintain a relatively unchanged level of risk, it also represents a missed opportunity for those geographies that have benefited from ample financial support . Political risks worsen in a global context highly polarized by elements of a geopolitical nature, particularly in the component of political violence; climate risks worsen, energy transition indicators improve”.
