Time is running out and the hole is getting bigger. But the summer catchphrase is always the same: a refrain made up of the fight against tax evasion, additional VAT, tax amnesty. As has been the case for weeks now, unconfirmed rumors continue to chase each other about the possible moves of the majority to make ends meet for the encore maneuver. Hypothesis on which Giulio Tremonti is working, who this morning remained barricaded in via XX Settembre without taking part in the last Council of Ministers. The hands are running: at 15 pm the Government will have to present its amendments to the Senate Budget Committee.
After yesterday's setback on pensions, it is always the question of balances that takes center stage. The provision that was supposed to exclude the years of graduation and military service from the calculation for old-age pensions was worth 1,5 billion euros. Considering that after the Arcore summit between 5 and 6 were missing (due to the abolition of the solidarity contribution and the reduction of cuts to local authorities), at this point the hole in the maneuver could exceed 7 billion. A real coup will be needed to reach the infamous 45 quota, the only one that allows us to bring forward the balanced budget to 2013 and thus respect the diktat of the ECB.
All under the inquisitive gaze of Brussels, which menacingly reminds us of the need to also launch structural measures in favor of growth and employment. Not just cuts and taxes. To understand something and make the Italians feel breathing down their necks, this morning the informal meeting between the president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, and the leaders of the PDL group at the European Parliament. Now let's see what hypotheses are being studied by the Government. After the recent and dramatic experiences, the Executive seems to want to bet (almost) everything on the tax evaders. At least they are indefensible.
EVASION: INCREASE OF PENALTIES AND RECOVERY OF THE SECOND TRANCHE OF THE 2003 AMENDMENT
Once again the paternity of the fiscal intervention belongs to the Northern League minister Roberto Calderoli, who has been working on this idea in a hurry in the last 36 hours. It would mean harsher penalties for serious tax evaders, who would even risk imprisonment. A measure that should run parallel to the recovery of unpaid money from taxpayers on the occasion of the last Tremonti tax amnesty.
Back in 2003, thousands of taxpayers paid out only the first installment in order not to suffer criminal proceedings, only to then go into hiding and escape the subsequent tranches. Taking them back by the ears, according to initial estimates, around four billion could be recovered. Of course, at this point it would also be necessary to charge interest and forbid the sly from joining future (possible) amnesties.
Even older hypotheses remain standing: interventions against the fictitious companies to which luxury goods are registered, greater powers to the Municipalities to track down tax evaders, cross-checks between declared income and owned assets.
A NEW AMENDMENT
The two most hated words are back on everyone's lips: grave amnesty. Or, by changing the attribute but not the result, building amnesty. The ministers concerned are quick to deny it, but there is no doubt that this path would be the quickest and most technically painless (ethical issues aside) to settle the accounts. However, it would be an isolated injection which would also give a further blow to the image of the Government.
AGREEMENT WITH SWITZERLAND STYLE GERMANY AND GREAT BRITAIN
Italy could find an agreement with the Swiss government. The aim would be to improve the taxation on capital belonging to wealthy taxpayers of our country but held in very secure numbered Swiss current accounts. Such an agreement with Zurich has already been concluded by Germany and Great Britain. France however refused. In any case, the Treasury believes that a similar pact should be signed at EU level.
VAT INCREASE, MAYBE 1,5%
The VAT increase is back. Tremonti still does not want to take the measure into consideration, which he would like to keep as an ace up his sleeve for the fiscal delegation. But Berlusconi's pressure could eventually win: there is too much money to find. For weeks the Knight has been pressing for an intervention on the value added tax which would raise the ordinary rate from 20 to 21%. The news of the last few hours is that the increase could reach 1,5%.
CUTS TO MINISTRY
To raise cash without arousing the ire of unions and categories, a new cut in funds for the ministries, already cut for 6 billion in the first maneuver in July, could be indispensable.
