The goal is to defuse the European infringement procedure. How to get to the goal is still a puzzle. The two deputy premiers, Matteo Salvini and Luigi Di Maio, have now abandoned the fort of deficit-GDP at 2,4%, but – in view of the European elections in May – they want to give up as little as possible on their respective flagship measures: 100 quota on pensions and basic income.
European rules in hand, to do its duty Italy should keep next year's deficit within 1,6% of GDP, which corresponds to a drop in the structural deficit equal to 0,1% of GDP. Brussels can go up to 1,7%, given that in previous agreements it was kept lower precisely to have 0,1% to be used in a possible negotiation. To this margin is added another 0,2% of additional flexibility for the collapse of the Morandi bridge in Genoa and the hydrogeological instability. Finally, the EU Commission has put a further 0,5% on the table, bringing Europe's latest offer at 1,95%.
How to get down to this level? Treasury engineers believe that next year the expenditure for the 100 share will be less than five billion, against almost seven budgeted. Salvini has agreed to sell part of the resources intended for the pension counter-reform, but has not yet given the go-ahead for the maxi cut requested by the Ministry of Economy, which would like to reduce spending for the 100 share by 2,5 billion, equal to 0,15, XNUMX% of GDP.
It means introducing new limits to reduce early retirements in 2019. Among these, a particular problem concerns the doctors (mostly surgeons): for Cosmed, a union of doctors and public administration managers, there would be 25 thousand white coats ready to retire with the 100 quota. Replacing them all would be a problem for the rusty Italian training system.
As for the other side of the majority, at the same time Di Maio should give up a substantial slice of the resources allocated for the CBI, which could be reduced from the 780 advertised until a few weeks ago to 500 euros per family. A figure compatible with the resources available (9 billion in total, of which 7,1 for income, one for citizen's pensions and one for the reform of the employment centres) considering the departure of the check from 1 April .
Thanks to the interventions on the 100 quota and basic income, the 2019 GDP deficit should decrease by 2,4 to 2,2%. To avoid the procedure, a further 0,25 would be missing, which is worth about four and a half billion. Where the government intends to find them is still unclear.
Just as it is not clear what will become of the cut to the so-called "pensions of gold“, still in the balance. The measure does not exist among the modification proposals presented by the government and speakers in the Chamber: it should be introduced with an amendment in the Senate.
