Surprise: in the text of the budget law that the Quirinal sent to Parliament, there is no mention of either CBI nor of quota 100 for pensions. The two measures have been removed from the maneuver and inserted in separate bills, probably to soften the judgment of the European Commission on the budget. In truth, the public accounts projected for 2019 do not change: the allocations for basic income and for quota 100 remain unchanged, therefore next year's GDP deficit will not drop from that 2,4% so disliked in Brussels. However, the money allocated to these two measures remains virtual for the moment and according to the Accounting Office - which stamped the text - the maneuver does not generate "greater burdens on public finance" for the citizen's income and the Fornero reform. Not only that: the two bills will have to respect the spending ceilings set by the maneuver and any savings could be used for other purposes, such as reducing the public deficit. On this front, however, there is no certainty. In sending the text to the Chambers, the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella wanted to accompany the transition with a letter sent to Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte in which he reminds him of the opportunity for a constructive dialogue with the EU.
The most relevant difference from the original version of the maneuver is in the times. Diverting the two key measures into bills unrelated to the maneuver (for which a preferential lane is envisaged in Parliament) means making them postpone the final approval and therefore the entry into force. It is clear that the majority will try to complete the procedures as soon as possible, but at this point there is no longer the certainty that the basic income and the 100 quota will see the light before the European elections in May.
GOLDEN PENSION CUTS
The other big news of the last hour is cancellation of the cut maneuver (differentiated by income bracket) to the so-called golden pensions. In this case it is a real white-out shot. The measure was potentially worth 300 million a year, but it was canceled – and not moved – probably because the fear of a (almost obvious) rejection by the Constitutional Court prevailed in the Government. According to other rumors, the cut could come back through the window in the coming weeks with a parliamentary or government amendment. Lega and M5S would have found an agreement to hit checks over 90 thousand euros (excluding those from complementary funds). The extent of the cuts is still in doubt: 6% between 90 and 120 thousand euros, 12% between 120 and 160 thousand euros and 18% over 160 thousand euros.
FAMILY AND REGIONS
The draft maneuver launched by the Accounting Office is made up of 108 articles, against 115 in the first draft. The increase of 100 million to the fund for family policies (birth, maternity and paternity) has also disappeared, but - the competent ministry explains - also in this case it is a simple shift: that money will reappear in the second section of the maneuver .
Among the confirmed measures, the reduction of 80% of health-welfare funds to the Regions which will not cut the annuities of regional presidents and councilors.
MATTARELLA WRITES TO COUNT
"It is my duty to urge the government to develop - also during the parliamentary examination - the confrontation and constructive dialogue with the European institutions", writes Sergio Mattarella in the letter sent to Giuseppe Conte on the day of the green light for the presentation to the Chamber of Deputies maneuver text. "In proceeding with this fulfillment - writes Mattarella - I wish to address the Government, in the common intention of protecting the fundamental interests of Italy, with the aim of a budget law that defends Italian savings, strengthens the confidence of families, businesses and economic operators and protects Italy from financial instability”.
In the letter, the President refers to articles 81, 97 and 117 of the Constitution, to the assessments of the Parliamentary Budgetary Office, established by the constitutional law n. 1 of 2012, to the observations and the request for clarifications and corrections received from the European Commission.
EXPANSIVE MANEUVER, "HOLE" OF 28 BILLION
The budget law entails a reduction in revenue of 8,2 billion in 2019 and higher expenditure of 19,8 billion. The data are contained in the presentation report of the budget law sent to the Chamber which quantifies the effects of the maneuver.
"In terms of competence, the provisions envisaged with the Public Finance Maneuver lead to a worsening of the trend balance of the State budget by approximately 28 billion in 2019, 26,3 billion in 2020 and 30 billion in 2021". The data are contained in the presentation report of the budget law sent to the Chamber which quantifies the effects of the maneuver. The report states that "the government believes that an expansive policy is needed".
Updated at 12:23pm Thursday November 1, 2018
