If we exclude the 23,1 billion needed to avoid the VAT increase, "the neat maneuver is small and that's a good thing. It was preferred to avoid a more ambitious policy, which would then have required more significant coverage". So the study center Ref Searches, chaired by Roberto Perotti, former Mister Spendig review of Palazzo Chigi, comments in his latest publication on the content of Update note to the Economics and Finance document. The Nadef was released last Monday by the government and outlines the outlines of the budget law to be delivered in draft form to the European Commission by mid-month.
"On the other hand - continues the comment - what matters is not the size of the interventions, but their quality and consistency with the characteristics of the economic context of the moment: since in this phase the Government was presented a good opportunity, represented by the reduction in interest expenditure, the decision to remove uncertainty on the evolution of the balances, in order to accommodate the fall in the spread, is entirely reasonable”.
This approach brings with it “the renunciation of adopting measures to effect, aimed at certain electoral returns and uncertain economic effects, an element that significantly qualifies, and positively, the structure of the maneuver".
In any case, according to Ref Ricerche "some uncertainties remain about the balances linked to the unpromising conditions of the international economic situation, and the fact that the debt decreases little, and only thanks to a trend in nominal GDP expected to accelerate in the final part of the programming period, a circumstance that remains to be verified. This is also because the strengthening depends in part on the fact that from 2021 prices will accelerate because the safeguard clauses are back in effect. A discordant note that tells us that, even in calmer waters, the helmsman still sails on sight”.
In conclusion, summarizes the research centre, “the fall in interest rates was an opportunity not to be missed. Not much else, but given the internal political situation, one could not have hoped for more”.
