The Council of Ministers is preparing to launch the Update of the Economic and Financial Document (Nadef) on Monday afternoon but many chapters of the maneuver are still open. As always happens on these occasions for over thirty years now.
The first obstacle to overcome concerns the total amount of the public deficit: 2,1 or 2,2% of GDP? There are almost two billion at stake because each decimal point is worth 1,8 billion and convincing the EU to give Italy the go-ahead for a higher-than-expected deficit is not easy, despite the great credibility of the new Minister of the Economy, Roberto Gualtieri. Between the sterilization of VAT and the cut in the tax wedge there are at least 28 billion to be found and it is not excluded that, even if it is approved, the new tax wedge could enter into force a few months later than expected to save resources.
But the second unresolved question concerns VAT: to sterilize the increase from 23 billion the government is trying them all, including the possibility of providing for selective increases on the rates, depending on the forms of payment and providing for discounts on certain goods if electronic payments are used. But the traders are on a war footing and even among the political forces that support the government there is still a balance to be found.
Then there is the chapter of green investments, which the Government hopes to be able to partially deduct from the calculation of the deficit by anticipating the Golden rule also promoted by the new President of the EU, Ursula Von der Leyen. But as always, the devil is hidden in the details while the secretary of the Democratic Party, Nicola Zingaretti, after the oceanic youth demonstrations on Friday, asks that Italy allocate a 50 billion investment plan over 15 years to the environment: the intention is commendable but the resources and application methods are all to be discussed.
In short, there is a lot of meat on the fire but resources are few and squaring the circle remains difficult while from Lanciano, where the Economic Days in honor of De Cecco are underway, the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco , recommends the spending review and cutting the wedge. The Government will respond tomorrow.
