After a bad start, Piazza Affari recovers but remains in negative territory with a decrease of more than 1,10% close to 19 points. More contained losses, around 0,4% for the other eurozone lists. Salt instead London (+0,2%) pending the summit of the British government convened to discuss the go-ahead for the Brexit agreement.
Italy submitted to the European Commission a new budgetary planning document which keeps the main growth and deficit targets unchanged, despite the findings of Brussels, which had rejected the previous version because it did not comply with EU rules. In the new version, the 2019 GDP growth estimate is kept at 1,5%, while for 2020 the target is set at 1,6%. The deficit/GDP estimate for 2,4 was confirmed at 2019%, against the 2,9% forecast by Brussels.
In the letter to Brussels, the only concession concerns the trajectory of the debt, destined to fall thanks to privatizations, increased to 1% of GDP. 3% of Eni and a share of Enav could be sold (+4% this morning). Barclays writes that the market takes for granted the opening of the infringement procedure, for excessive debt, but an accentuation of anti-Europe tones by the government could further weaken the BTP.
The spread widens to 309 basis points after a jump to 317 in the morning, from 303 yesterday; BTP at 3,50%, from 3,45% yesterday.
On the macro front, the setback of German GDP should also be noted, down by 0,2% on the previous quarter.
Oil is still weak after yesterday's collapse: Brent at 65,7 dollars a barrel, +0,1%. The hypothesis of a cut in production of around 1,5 million barrels per day, up to a maximum of 1,8 million barrels, is making headway. Oil prices are down: Eni-2,7%. Saipem-2,8%. Tenaris -2%.
The widening of the spread penalizes banks and financial companies: Intesa Sanpaolo -1,9% Unicredit -2% Bpm bank -3,2%. Carige rebounds (+15%) which yesterday had left about 50% on the ground.
Down too Italian post (-3%) And Generali (-1,2%).
The worst title is Mediaset (-8,5%), after accounts which dashed the hope of a recovery. In the third quarter, revenues from the Italian operations totaled 441 million euros, down 7% year on year. Net advertising sales on generalist television networks show an increase of 4% to 308 million. Pay TV revenues halved, to 71 million. The quarter closed with an operating loss of 27 million, an improvement from -49 million a year ago.
It takes the downward path too Tim (-4%) waiting for the probable counter-move by Vivendi.
Fiat Chrysler -0,5%. Exor+0,3%, announced a 300 million euro share buyback.
The Stoxx index of European automotive companies is up 0,5%. Cnh Industrial -1,2%.
Outside the main basket, after the accounts for the quarter, the declines dominate:
Thump of Fila (-5%) which closes the first nine months with a turnover of 437 million euros, +12% year on year, but net of the currency effect, the change is almost zero. Adjusted Ebitda of 74 million euros, in line with forecasts. The net profit, equal to 23 million, is slightly below the estimates.
Datalogic -12% after closing the quarter with 151 million euros in revenues (+5%), against 26 million euros in Ebitda (+2,2%). The net result is slightly below forecasts, at 15 million. The company has revised downwards its estimates of turnover growth for the current year.
Geox -15%. The first nine months of 2018 closed with 672 million euros in revenues, down 8% year on year. The company expects a 6-7% drop in revenues for the current year, with an Ebitda margin of around 5%. The company presented a three-year plan, these are the targets: revenues 950-1000 million, Ebitda margin 10%.
