Il Meloni government has not yet been born, but the future Prime Minister is already grappling with the main challenge of the autumn: writing and approving the maneuver 2023 by 31 December to avoid provisional exercise. We have already talked about the economic problems weighing on the next budget law (GDP slows down, the deficit rises, inflation rises). Today we face the political nodes.
The first concerns times. The President of the Republic intends to shorten the procedures as much as possible, but the list of steps is long. The convening of the House and Senate is scheduled for 13 October, the start of the consultations between 17 and 18 October to then proceed with the formation of the new executive, composition of the parliamentary commissions, vote of confidence of deputies and senators. Even in the best case scenario, therefore, the new government will not take office before early November.
This means that for everything that comes before, the will be indispensable collaboration of the Draghi cabinet, coordinated by the direction of the Quirinale. The operation is unprecedented, because never before in the history of the Republic have elections been held in full budget session. And it will also be complex, because the outgoing Prime Minister does not want to be involved in the political choices that will be up to the new government.
The Nadef
There will be no problems for the Update note of the Economic and financial document, which in theory should have been presented to Parliament by today, but will probably arrive in the Chambers on Thursday. Given the situation, this year Nadef will contain only the "trend picture", i.e. legislation in force, and not also the "programmatic" one, which should take into account the effects of the maneuver, which however does not yet exist.
The budget planning document
Much more complex will be the Budget planning document, which should contain the tables with the economic project for 2023 together with a general illustration of the maneuver and should be sent within the 15 October to the European Commission and the Eurogroup (as well as the Italian Parliament). Italy has explored the possibility of being exempted from presenting the Dpb this year, given the exceptional political conditions, but Brussels has given a negative response.
Finding a way out will not be easy, but it should be emphasized that the Dpb is not binding on the government (even Draghi and Franco have departed from it this year in the face of the emergency created by the war) and above all that there is a precedent. On October 15, 2021, in Germany, it was the government of Angela Merkel to send the Dpb to Europe, after the general elections of 26 September which marked the chancellor's exit from the political scene. The European Commission evaluated that Document with an opinion published on 24 November 2021, before the inauguration of the Scholz governmentwhich took place on 8 December. Subsequently, on April 27 of this year, the Social Democratic executive sent a new, revised and corrected DPB to Brussels.
The 2023 maneuver
The real test bench for the Meloni government will therefore be right there maneuver 2023. Fratelli d'Italia hopes that “there is a plant to work on to draw up the budget”, while sources of the current government cited by Corriere della Sera let it be known that "there are no drafts at the moment”. However, when the match gets underway, it is likely that Mattarella will decide to intervene to mediate and that Draghi will defer to Colle's requests. If it is not exactly a four-handed maneuver, therefore, it is to be expected that at least the bulk of the system will be set up by a transition team halfway between the outgoing and incoming governments.
