The 2020 budget law will be worth about 29 billion. Of these, 23,1 will be used to avoid VAT increases, 2,7 will be used to reduce the tax wedge and the rest will go to non-deferable expenses (such as missions abroad). This is what emerges from the update note to the Economic and Financial Document approved on Monday evening by the Council of Ministers. The new version of the Def is now being examined by the European Commission.
DEFICIT AND DEBT
The figure that Italy will ask Brussels to allocate as further flexibility on the accounts is higher than expected (14,4 billion, equal to 0,8% of GDP): next year's deficit-GDP ratio is in fact raised from 1,4 .2,2 to 135,7% programmatic. Debt, on the other hand, will drop from 135,2 to 4% of GDP, about 130,4 points more than the target set by the Def last April (due to the reclassification made by Eurostat). However, the repayment path that will bring the debt to 2022 of GDP in XNUMX remains confirmed.
VAT: NO INCREASE, CUTS IN STUDY
The chapter that most kept the majority in fibrillation was undoubtedly that of VAT. In order to find the necessary resources for the manoeuvre, the hypothesis of allowing some selective increases and reorganizing the two lowest rates had gained ground in recent days. A road that however was blocked by the no of Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Renzi, who demanded full respect of the main objective of economic policy announced at the birth of the new government. The Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, lowered the tension by making it known that "the 23 billion to sterilize the VAT increase are there: we have found them". Not only that: "We are working to bring the VAT on bills from 10% to 5%, and on milk, pasta, bread from 4% to 1% - added the Premier - The goal is to pay all those who pay less".
TAX WEDGE: CUT LOWER THAN EXPECTED
On the labor front, due to the lack of additional revenue from VAT, the funds destined to cut the tax wedge wanted by the Pd will be lower than expected: not five billion as previously said, but 2,7. However, the goal is to increase the allocations over the next three years: already in 2021 there will be 5,4 billion.
THE BEFANA SUPERBONUS
The novelty of the day is the "befana superbonus" - the definition is always Conte's - which will put a small part of the expenses made with the credit card back into the pockets of taxpayers. It should be a 10% bonus, with a ceiling of 475 euros, reserved for those who spend at least 2.500 euros a year with cards and debit cards for goods or services at risk of evasion. It will arrive at the beginning of the year: that's why “della Befana”.
THE PROBLEM OF COVERS
In terms of coverage, in addition to the additional deficit, the document also mentions 1,7-1,8 billion coming from the reduction "of tax expenditures and subsidies harmful to the environment" and from "new environmental taxes".
Furthermore, "0,1 points of GDP", around 1,8 billion, will come from "other fiscal measures, including the extension of the substitute tax on the revaluation of land and shareholdings".
1,8 billion will arrive from the spending review.
Overall, spending cuts for next year are worth $12,6 billion.
Finally, a good 7,2 billion are expected from the fight against tax evasion, even if the new scheme of measures in this field has not yet been defined.
Given the lack of VAT increases, however, the coverage problem remains partially unresolved. Negotiations in the Government will probably continue until 20 October, the last day to approve the maneuver in the Council of Ministers.
2019 AND 2020 GDP LOWER THAN EXPECTED
The Nadef reduces the expected growth for the GDP this year from 0,2 to 0,1%, while for the next it aims at 0,6%, reducing the previous estimates by 0,2%.
Befana bonus scheduled for the beginning of the year but from 2021