La Maneuver 2025 is in the process of being prepared and the government finds itself having to cook a delicious dish with scarce ingredients. Despite the promises of a rich budget law, the resources are available limited and portions may be smaller than expected. Giorgia Meloni, who continues to preach evangelical prudence to his ministers, reiterated the mantra of the season: "No more money thrown out the window and bonuses raining down. Everything must be concentrated on businesses and families." This is the gist of his speech, commenting on the latest Istat forecasts which, with a downward reduction in GDP for 2024 to 0,6%, seem to distance the mirage of 1% growth forecast in the DEF.
Among the certainties, it seems almost certain that the maxi-deduction for companies that hire will be confirmed. There are also rumours of a fringe benefits reform, those additional bonuses in the form of goods and services such as company cars or cell phones. Currently, employees with dependent children can enjoy a tax-free threshold of up to 2 thousand euros, while others have to make do with a thousand euros. In the new maneuver, the government could simplify the situation with a single ceiling between 1500 and 2000 euros.
The challenge of the Irpef rate
The next budget law seems destined to include the return of the tax wedge cut for employees and one tax relief also for self-employed workers. In addition, companies that hire on a permanent basis could continue to benefit from the 120% maxi-deduction.
Another possible novelty concerns theIrpef. The government is considering a reduction of the intermediate rate from 35% to 33% and the expansion of the income bracket of the second bracket, bringing it from 50 thousand to 60 thousand euros. The hope is that the preventive agreement for VAT numbers, expiring on October 31, can make a difference. Whether the rates can also be cut for the middle class depends on how the two-year preventive agreement goes.
Still on the subject of aid, but focusing specifically on that intended for families, the government has denied the recent rumors according to which theAssegno Unico, the monthly support for families with dependent children, would have been reduced. It seems certain that self-employed women will benefit from the relief for mothers.
Pensions at a standstill
The pension dossier still presents some unknowns. Alloy pushes for the introduction of 41 quota, while Forza Italy insists on an increase in minimum pensions. Giorgia Meloni assured that the government is working for a significant revaluation of minimum pensions, with an increase to 120%, and reiterated the commitment to keep this measure among the priorities of the budget law.
However, the opposition expresses concern about the financial coverage and fears that there could be cuts. Francesco Boccia, president of the Democratic senators, has asked the government for clarifications and greater transparency in Parliament. In the absence of a real reform, the extension of the current flexibility options for exit is expected, such as Opzione Donna, Ape Sociale and Quota 103.
Treasure Hunt: The Blanket is Short
To fully understand what we will find in the budget law for 2025, we will have to wait until we have a clearer picture of the resources. Currently, they seem scarce compared to the amount needed. The Undersecretary of Economy, Federico Freni, estimates an impact of about 25 billion, but the figure could exceed this threshold. It will be crucial to decide whether the measures will be structural or one-off, thus influencing the management of the extra revenue from the increased revenue. Some details will be available when the Structural Budget Plan (Psb), which will replace the old Nadef, will be ready. This plan will have to be sent to Brussels by 20 September and Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti aims to bring it to the Council of Ministers by mid-month, to give the Chambers time to digest it calmly.
The privatization plan: a mosaic under construction
Meanwhile, the privatization plan could suffer some modification. In the spring, the Def had reduced the initial target to 0,7% of GDP (about 14 billion), while now the loot is at 3 billion. Among the companies in the crosshairs are Ps, Fs, Enav, Eni and there is also talk of liberalising the ports. The game of Post Italian has instead become more complex: the initial process envisaged that the State would not go below 35%, but at the end of May the course was changed, setting the limit at 51%, thus reducing the potential collection to around 2 billion. But the Dpcm has not yet been modified and it does not seem that the issue will be resolved any time soon. The technicians continue to work tirelessly to fine-tune the simulations that the Mef will need to define the measures of the next maneuver.