It starts again tomorrow: eleven champions against Toro. There will be many Corporations which, starting from the 10th, will inaugurate the quarterly reporting campaign, an opportunity to take stock of the markets after the rush of recent months. In the last week the indices have recorded an increase. In addition to the good macro data with unemployment down to 4,2% in September, Wall Street, the lowest since 2000, Wall Street is betting on the arrival of the tax reform, amply promised by President Donald Trump. Among the most awaited, the numbers of the big banks: JP Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America in the lead. The accounts of Blackrock and Delta Airlines are also arriving. The US bond market is closed today.
Meanwhile, new positive signals are arriving from China: Shanghai, which has reopened its doors after a week's holiday, is up 1,3%. It's a new 21-month high. Instead, the Caixin PMI index is holding back: 50,6, just above the boundaries between expansion and stagnation. Sydney is also advancing. However, the stock exchanges of Japan, Taiwan and South Korea remain closed.
SCHAEUBLE BREAKS: TOO MUCH DEBTS
Unlike the speech for Europe, Wolfgang Schaeuble entrusted the Financial Times with his message of dismissal from the role of finance minister in Berlin in a very delicate moment for global finance. However, the ECB's halt to bad debts in Italy represented a rude awakening for the equity markets.
On the contrary Wall[ub1] Street, despite the foreseeable tightening of interest rates, shows no sign of slowing down (Dow Jones +1,6%). The Fed minutes, due out on Wednesday, should confirm the start of soft cuts to the central bank's balance sheet. More than the drop in employment reported by Friday's statistics (only 33 new jobs, doped by the effects of the hurricanes) the increase in payrolls counts: an abundant 90 percent of operators expect an increase in rates in December.
China, two weeks away from Congress, is postponing discussions with banks, businesses and households for the time being. More interesting, for now, is Tokyo, closed today for holidays. The challenger to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's seat, the mayor of Tokyo Yukio Koike, has developed a "zero-sum" program: no market incentives, no monetary stimuli. It will be interesting to evaluate the response of the electorate.
THE MONETARY FUND AND THE NOBEL PRIZE ON THE AGENDA
The annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank opens tomorrow in Washington in this climate. Growth for 2017 should settle at 3,5%. For 2018, the forecast rises to 3,7%-3,8%, but inequalities are also growing. The intervention of the president of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi is also expected. As usual, there is growing anticipation for the nomination of the new Nobel prize for economics.
But old Europe remains at the center of the debate, torn apart by doubts and disputes, albeit supported by the best economic situation since the outbreak of the crisis. The performance of the lists has already signaled the obstacles: Madrid was the worst Stock Exchange with -2,1%, followed by Piazza Affari (-1,4%). Frankfurt moved in the opposite direction, with the Dax flying to update all-time highs with a cumulative gain of 2%, on a par with London.
Among the individual stocks, German cars shone on Friday: BMW gained 5,2%, Volkswagen and Daimler also did well (+3%). On the contrary, the Italian and Spanish banks are bad.
TODAY THE EUROGROUP, TREASURY AUCTIONS UNDERWAY
Today the Eurogroup meets to discuss the European Stability Mechanism and the tax burden on labour. Meanwhile, the new round of negotiations on Brexit is starting in Brussels amidst a thousand difficulties. Attention, however, remains focused on the Catalan crisis. As Vanguardia wrote, speaking of last week's wicked levity, "we are showing the world our discord, our calculation errors, our incapacity for dialogue, our tendency to conflict, our self-destructive capacity". The suspicion is that, as happened eighty years ago, the prediction of the Rosselli brothers: "Today in Spain, tomorrow in Italy" could become topical again.
The mid-month Treasury auctions will be held this week. It begins on Wednesday 11 October with the offer of 6 billion euro in 12-month BOTs against the 6,25 billion maturing. The next day it will be the turn of the BTPs. On the government front, the yield on the German bund returned to where it started last Friday at 0,462%.
BOLLORÉ AND BERLUSCONI, THE NEGOTIATIONS START AGAIN
On the stock market, the first trials of an agreement between Telecom Italia and Mediaset are to be noted. On behalf of the Italian company he is dealing with the head of the legal office Daniel Guérin. For Tim the lawyer Sergio Erede. Meanwhile Naguib Sawiris renews his advances on the Italian group: "I focus on Italy and look at Telecom", he declared to Il Sole 24 Ore.
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