As a recent report by the SACE, in February, Italian exports of goods increased by 3,4% compared to the same month of 2018, with the average for the first two months rising to 3,2%. It's about a positive signal for Made in Italy, in consideration of the European and international economic situation, slowing down compared to the previous year: the Eurozone is progressing at a moderate pace with France and Germany among the best destinations, while, on the contrary, exports to Poland and the Czech Republic are decreasing, two of the best destinations during 2018. Overall, sales in Spain decreased, while they advanced in non-EU markets, especially in Switzerland (+14,7%), India (+12,2%) and Japan (+10,5, 2,8%). Better than expected, China (+XNUMX%), down in Sub-Saharan Africa and Mercosur.
Exports to the USA (+19,3%) it benefits from the strong contribution of shipbuilding and pharmaceuticals, with the positive trend, however, generalized across the various sectors. The significant increase in sales to the United Kingdom (+13,8%) represents, according to analysts, an "inventory effect" pending developments on the Brexit front. Exports to Turkey are in sharp decline (-27,8%) due to the current recession in the country and the consistent depreciation of the lira. From a sector point of view, foreign sales of the consumer goods group recorded the most significant increase (+7,6%), mainly thanks to the contribution of non-durables (+8,6%); durables instead advanced by 2,5%. The export of intermediate and capital goods settled at 2,8%. Among the best sectors (+7,8%) there are two excellences of traditional Made in Italy such as food and fashion: the first with excellent performance in Germany, Romania and the ASEAN markets, the second in China, France and Switzerland. The main Italian export sector, mechanical engineering (+4,1%), also performed well, with increases of around 20% in Japan, India and the USA.
In this scenario, considering that the global economy will lose momentum this year as it finds itself at the end of the business cycle, atradius confirms that downside risks to emerging markets will increasingly take center stage. Economic policy uncertainty created by US-China trade disputes and tightening global financial conditions remains a major source of concern. And while central banks in advanced markets are easing the pace of their monetary normalization, add risks stemming from rising political uncertainty among advanced markets and heightened volatility in commodity prices.
BULGARIA
Economic momentum in Eastern Europe is losing steam, marked by sanctions against Russia and by Turkey's contraction deeper than expected. However, Bulgaria stands out in the region, with GDP growth expected to accelerate to 3,5%. Despite the close economic link with neighboring Turkey, positive results are expected, driven by national demand and fixed investments. Bulgaria has a sustainable currency peg to the euro which supports macroeconomic stability and reduces currency risks. Considering the increase in household incomes, supported by higher wages and lower interest rates, the demand for imports is increasing. Opportunities for exporters are ample especially in the durable goods, food and beverage sectors. With Europe's budgetary year 2014-2020, investments are also contributing positively to growth: EU subsidies are, in particular, helping the machinery sectors (imports at +13,4%), chemicals and agriculture.
VIETNAM
The outlook for emerging Asian markets remains robust despite a continued and gradual slowdown in China. The Vietnam stands out in this context, with GDP growth expected this year of 6,7%. The country is by far the most export-oriented economy, with the value of exports of goods and services greater than the GDP; the economy also benefits from the strong growth in wages and salaries, supporting private consumption and government liberalization policies, thus stimulating greater investment by businesses. The high level of openness of the economy is also a strength, since local products and export destinations are highly diversified and the country actively pursues the implementation of free trade agreements, both bilaterally and as an ASEAN member . However, given its high degree of openness, it remains heavily exposed to trade tensions between the US and China. Trade diversification away from China could offer opportunities for Vietnam's large textile sector: analysts expect the sector to grow by 15% in 2019, further confirmed by the EU-Vietnam free market agreement and theCPTPP Trans-Pacific Market Agreement, which will come into effect this year.
MOROCCO
Also with regard to the prospects for the Middle East North Africa analysts speak of limited growth, due to weak oil production growth and geopolitical tensions in some countries. However, Morocco is bucking the trend and GDP growth is estimated to accelerate to 3,3% for 2019. The local economic outlook is improving thanks to a cyclical uptick in agricultural production, as well as higher growth in non-agricultural production, especially in automotive sector supported by an increase in public investments by the Government. Analysts underline a strong potential also in the tourism sector, which rose to 8,5% in 2018, as well as in the food and beverage sector. At the same time, the political situation, with reforms underway, is stable. While Morocco is vulnerable to external developments, primarily the Eurozone recession, the IMF's flexible exchange rate and precautionary liquidity facilities ensure external stability. With the installation of valuable infrastructure, the renewable energy sector is also seeing strong growth with potential import opportunities: the country's energy source is already about 35% from renewable sources, especially from concentrated solar energy and the Government has set the goal of increasing the share of renewable energy to 42% by 2020.
PERU
During 2019, despite the uncertainty that will characterize the global economy, some increases in theeconomic activity of Latin America, with Peru representing a very stable market with a high growth rate of around 4%. The government has an excellent track record in terms of prudent and business-friendly policy, despite the still slow progress of economic-structural reforms. The business climate is supported by strong institutions and a solid international environment. Hence, in the primary sector, significant growth prospects can be found in 2019: in particular, it is expected that the engine of growth of the industry will be an increase in anchovy fishing and a greater production of hydrocarbons. In addition, new mines are being developed by private companies such as Toromocho Mine Expansion, Mina Just, and Questaveco, which are boosting private sector investment. This flows into a continued growth of the construction sector as well as large public infrastructure projects that will be completed in 2019, such as the locations for the Pan American Games and the second line of the Lima metro. Finally, the fact that Peru has recently established trade agreements with the USA, EU, China, Mercosur should not be underestimated, key markets that could open up strong growth potential even in a nebulous short-term future for the global economy.
