For Made in Italy:, Sace Report a new growth in exports in January (+2,3% compared to the previous month) and the data for the first quarter also shows a positive trend (+2,4% compared to August-October), thanks in particular to the increase in sales of intermediate goods. While remaining negative, demand from EU partners contracted less than the overall one (-4,7% compared to January 2020), mitigated by the trend in Poland (+ 5,8%) and Germany (+0,9%). On the other hand, exports to Belgium (-8,3%), Austria (-7,2%) And France (-7,0%).
The contraction in demand is more pronounced in non-EU markets (-12,7%), especially in UK (-37,4%), Use (-20,6%), Russia (-16,3%) And Turkey (-15,0%). In contrast, exports to China (+ 29,2%), Mercosur (+ 8,2%) and oceania (+3,3%). In January, the positive performances of China, Poland and Germany are united by marked growth in some sectors of intermediate goods, demonstrating an ongoing recovery. In particular, we note the increase in demand for metal products (+35,3%, +25,4% and +10,8% respectively) and electrical appliances (+134,8%, +13,1% and +10,6%). Pharmaceutical exports were also positive, in contrast with the overall sector (+3,1% to Beijing, +49,9% to Warsaw and +17,5% to Berlin).
After a positive performance in 2020 (+1,9%), the year begins with a contraction for food and beverages, due to the reduction in demand both in non-EU markets (-10,3%) and within the EU (-4,4%). The Asian bloc is an exception: in China, India and Japan growth of 19,4%, 7,8% and 7,7% respectively is observed. Relatively more contained drop for the export of mechanical engineering, attenuated by the performances in China (+20,0%), USA (+15,6%) and Germany (+0,3%). Electronics exports, on the other hand, remained stable.
China already shows that it is the relative winner in the post-COVID-19 world, emerging from the shock before the rest of the world and with the authorities already planning for the long term: Euler-Hermes expects China to catch up with US GDP in 2030 instead of 2032 as expected at the end of 2019. This context, together with free trade agreements, will help strengthen Asia-Pacific trade integration: intra-regional trade it accounts for a large share of total trade in the area (74% on average in the 2010s) and the relatively high complementarity between local economies' trade suggests that this strategy is likely to be effective in the medium to long term.
Il Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)recently signed, sends a strong signal in favor of continued and strengthened trade integration in the region: which countries would benefit the most? China, South Korea, Singapore and Japan. In terms of export specialization, competitiveness and trade complementarity, China and Japan clearly show greater competitiveness in the most globally traded sectors.
In light of the rivalry between the US and China for many economies such as the European ones the goal will be to define a trade strategy with Asia, while preserving the alliance with Washington. Businesses should pay attention to the potentially different competitive environments between regions, as trade agreements in Asia-Pacific often have less restrictive standards. From a sectoral point of view, further integration of trade and investment in mechanical appliances and electrical equipment is expected.
