The last SACE note announced that during the month of August, Italian exports decreased by 3,4% compared to the previous year, due to the contraction in the EU area. In terms of products, only the pharmaceutical sector manages to accelerate exports compared to July. In this scenario, in the first eight months of 2019 the overall performance of Made in Italy is +2,6%; demand from EU partners is declining, especially in Spain (-9% year-on-year), Germany (-7,5%), France (-5,9%) and the United Kingdom (-4,7%). The data relating to non-EU markets shows an increase in demand in Japan and Switzerland (+24,9%). The USA is slowing down (+0,8%). Exports of goods to Tokyo continue to grow, thanks to "traditional" Made in Italy such as food & beverage and clothing, while in Russia it remains in positive territory thanks to machinery, metals and pharmaceuticals. The trend in Latin America is the result of the fall in Mexican demand (-5% between January and August tendential) and Argentina (-27,8%), but also of the growth in Chile, Colombia and Peru; Brazil (+0,9%) is once again the first destination in the area.
And precisely in Brazil the modest economic recovery is destined to continue this year, after the deep recession reached in 2014-2016, a period in which the GDP decreased by almost 9%. The 2018 economic results were affected by the uncertainty of businesses and consumers in view of the elections, or the truck drivers' strike and the containment of household spending, hampered by high unemployment at over 12%. Although consumer and business confidence has increased since the elections, exports are still being impacted by the economic woes in Argentina, the third largest export market for the green-gold. Already in April atradius for the next two years, it forecast inflation in the Central Bank's target range of 3%-6%, allowing it to leave the official interest rate unchanged at an all-time low of 6,5%. In this way both investments and loans could be supported.
Also in Brazil, business insolvencies increased significantly in 2015-16, where judicial recovery cases grew by about 45% year-on-year. After stabilizing during 2018, business failures are expected to decrease by 5% this year, but remain at high levels compared to pre-crisis years. Despite the recovery, the economic environment remains challenging until more clarity is shed on solving the fiscal problems and adopting a sustainable pension reform.
Pharmaceutical products are growing in almost all the main Made in Italy destinations, even in otherwise contracting areas such as Opec or Mercosur. The latter two, together with the Asean group, also represent a favorable destination for motor vehicles, a sector of goods otherwise suffering outside the EU (especially in the USA and Turkey). And, despite the duties issue, However, Washington remains an essential market for Italian food & beverage. Among the main groupings of industries, consumer goods are confirmed as the best in terms of exports, albeit slowing down, thanks in particular to non-durables (+11,5%, in the first eight months). On the other hand, the growth of exports of durable consumer goods remains more moderate (+2,4%). After eight months, foreign demand for intermediate goods recorded an increase of 1,4%, while the positive territory for capital goods did not recover.
