As reported by the SACE, in January exports returned to growth compared to the previous month (+2,7%): the positive trend of some sectors (clothing, food) and geographical areas (USA, Japan, Switzerland) is confirmed. The first impact of the Coronavirus on the demand of commercial partners is partly visible in exports to China (-11,9% compared to the same month of the previous year). In February 2020, a trade balance is estimated at 5.096 million euros, with a strong trend increase (3.420 million in February 2019). Above all, the surplus in the trade of non-energy products increased (from 6.484 million to 7.733 million).
The weakness of demand from EU countries continuesabove the average we find only Belgium (+16,8%), the Netherlands (+7,9%), Poland (+5,7%) and France. Negative performance in Germany, Austria, Romania and the Czech Republic. Japan (+33%), USA and Switzerland (+4,3%) continue to ask for Made in Italy, accompanied by good results in Sub-Saharan Africa (+37,9 %), OPEC countries (+16%) and Turkey (+35,1%). Negative in addition to China, North Africa and India. Italian exports to Germany, the first destination market for Italian exports, are down by 2,5%, due to the performance of machinery and rubber-plastics, while motor vehicles are growing. In France and the USA, respectively the second and third destination of Made in Italy, food and beverages, clothing, means of transport and furniture are growing. Pharmaceuticals, on the other hand, are on the opposite side: down overseas (-21,8%), growing across the Alps (+16%); in February, a modest cyclical increase in sales to non-EU markets was estimated at +0,6%, while a broader slowdown in imports was recorded, which recorded a drop of -6,6%. In the same period, for the non-EU area excluding the United Kingdom, an increase in exports of +0,8% on a monthly basis and +7,8% on an annual basis is estimated, while imports recorded large decreases both on monthly (-7,2%) and annual (-3,7%) basis. The trade balance is equal to + 3.909 million.
Among the main groupings of industries, consumer goods are also confirmed as the most dynamic in the first month of 2020, thanks mainly to non-durable goods (+4,8%), with encouraging signs also coming from durable consumer goods (+4%). The dynamics of intermediate goods was not equally good, following a weak growth in the past year (+0,9%) with a decline. Pharmaceuticals as a whole slow down in January (+25,6% in 2019), but progressing in France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Japan and ASEAN countries. These last three destinations, with the addition of China, Russia and Mercosur, have all been favorable beyond the borders of the common market for food and beverages. Motor vehicles recorded more fluctuating results, conditioned by the -8% of last year: strong growth among Opec, Asean, Mercosur, Japan, Turkey and Switzerland, but contraction in China, United Kingdom, Czech Republic and Spain. In February, the slight growth in exports on a monthly basis is mainly due to the increase in sales of capital goods (+4,5%), while they decreased in the energy (-16,0%) and intermediate goods (-2,5%) sectors. As far as imports are concerned, the categories that recorded a greater cyclical decrease in purchases from non-EU countries are: energy (-15,8%), capital goods (-4,8%) and non-durable consumer goods (-4,5 .3,4%); only durable consumer goods grew (+XNUMX%).
This is all about the beginning of the year, but since the virus began its spread in February 2020, there has been a sudden collapse in both supply and demand; on the one hand, the measures taken to contain the contagion have forced to block most of the production activities, on the other, there has been a drastic decrease in the demand for goods and services, both nationally and from abroad. The forecasts of the CSC (Centro Studi Confindustria) are based on the hypothesis of a gradual reopening of the manufacturing sector. However, even if these hypotheses were to occur, the national GDP would record a slowdown of around -10% in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the end of 2019, while the restart from the beginning of July would see many difficulties with drastically reduced domestic demand (-6,8 .XNUMX%). For the current year, the analysis estimates an overall drop in GDP of -6%; otherwise, the estimates would have to be revised downwards, however the slowdown will be worse than that recorded in the midst of the economic crisis in 2009. Suffice it to say that every additional week of blockage of production activities costs around 0,75% of the gross domestic product. In addition to the slowdown in demand, a further effect of the current crisis will be the recomposition of the basket, which will see sectors such as clothing, transport, recreational and cultural services, accommodation and catering facilities at a disadvantage.
Among the most negative components in 2020, the study highlights the collapse of investments by businesses, due to the current uncertainty and the slow recovery in demand that is expected for the future. As far as exports are concerned, they too will suffer significant declines, estimated for 2020 at -5,1% compared to 2019, as a consequence of the slowdown in trade which will probably take place on a global scale. A further threat is represented by the possibility that other foreign countries could take advantage of the current difficulties of Made in Italy, subtracting market shares from Italian manufacturing. If we take into consideration the fact that about a third of the total employed in our country and about half of the investments for growth come from industry, then Confindustria has presented a series of proposals for maintaining the economic fabric in view of the end of the health emergency, including: an extraordinary anti-cyclical plan financed with EU funds; interventions for the financial support of companies of all sizes; moratorium tools and suspension of fiscal and financial deadlines; administrative simplification to make the economic policy action immediately effective. The stability of the Italian production system and its consequent recovery depend on the degree of resilience that it will be able to demonstrate during the crisis.
