In Cuba the political situation is stable e the slow process of reform continues through the gradual opening of the economy to the private sector and to foreign investment. However, economic planning continues to be the predominant system. In this context critical elements, at a social level, are linked to the living conditions of the population, the restrictions on civil and political rights and the absence of figures to manage the future political transition. Furthermore, the lack of updated and credible economic-financial data weighs on it, making it difficult to assess the situation in the country. Petrocaribe it is an alliance based on energy exchange between Venezuela and some Caribbean markets, with the possibility for the latter to purchase Venezuelan oil on preferential payment terms. Venezuela offers Cuba aid quantifiable in 80-100 thousand barrels of oil per day. As reported by SACE study, in the period 2008-13 economic activity grew at an average annual rate of 2,7%, while the estimates for the two-year period 2014-15 indicate a slowdown of +1%. Above all, the low productivity of the manufacturing sector, the worsening of the terms of trade and the increase in political-economic instability in Venezuela, the country's main trading partner, weigh heavily, with possible repercussions on the Petrocaribe agreement. In 2013, the GDP was more than 77 billion dollars, while the per capita product equaled about 6,8 thousand dollars. However, the Cuban economic structure remains little diversified and characterized by a limited industrial base. The government is trying to revive manufacturing activity, increasing its added value and technological content, in order to reduce dependence on imports. In particular, the authorities expect a positive contribution from the sugar industry, agricultural production and the hotel and restaurant sector. The tourism sector remainsIn fact, one of the country's leading foreign exchange providers along with mining (cobalt and nickel) and professional services. Looking at the contribution of healthcare personnel, about 50 Cuban doctors, nurses, technicians work in the Caribbean region, Brazil, Africa and in the countries adhering to theBolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA). However, the revenues of these sectors are not sufficient to compensate for the need for currency needed for energy and basic goods.
To accelerate economic development and the opening up to foreign capital, the law was recently approved reform of the Ley de Inversión Extranjera whose objective is to increase exports, import substitution, infrastructure development and technological know-how. The new law opens the door to foreign investors in many sectors, from tourism to mining, from agriculture to the pharmaceutical industry, from metallurgy to wholesale trade. Certain sectors remain excluded, including health care, education and defense. Periodically, the Ministerio del Comercio Exterior de Cuba (Mincex) prepares an updated list of investment opportunities (Cartera de Opportunidades de Inversion Extranjera), where the launched projects are listed, with details of the operations and indication of the local counterpart interested in starting a partnership with foreign investors. If one looks at the goal of attracting foreign investment, developing infrastructure and local industry, the construction project Mariel Special Development Zone assumes particular importance. The area is located in a geographically strategic area (the port closest to the USA) and will be able to accommodate post-Panamax ships, as well as being a possible operational base for the exploration of offshore crude oil and for light industrial production and linked to the branch of biotechnology, the driving force of Cuban research. The new law and the development of the Special Zone offer, together with the legal guarantees on investments, a series of additional tax benefits compared to those provided for by the ordinary tax regime. Foreign companies will be able to operate in the country following three legal forms: joint venture, business association contract and company with completely foreign capital. Companies with 100% foreign capital do not benefit from the tax advantages granted to the other two types. Despite the undeniable progress on the front of opening up to foreign capital, in any case, the incoming investment flow will remain below the potential due to the US embargo still in force, stringent regulations and a difficult operating environment. One of the major limitations reported by foreign operators is the continuation of the obligation to contract personnel through state agencies.
Cuban imports from the rest of the world grew by 6,5% in 2013, reaching 14,7 billion. The main suppliers are Venezuela (33%), EU markets (23%), China (10%) and NAFTA partners (9%). Cuban exports are mainly made up of nickel (19% of the total), chemical products (11%), sugar (8,5%) and tobacco (5%) and, in 2013, amounted to 5,3 billion ( -5% compared to 2012). Italy is the second Community exporter after Spain. The trade balance between Italy and Cuba shows a surplus for our country. In 2013, Italian exports amounted to approximately 268 million euros (+8,4%) and were concentrated in the sectors of instrumental mechanics (33% of the total), rubber and plastics (13%), chemical products (12%) and electrical appliances (11%). The first ten months of 2014 showed a trend drop in exports of 17,3%. The main reasons for this contraction lie in the still tight state control over imports, through the licensing system, the limits on the availability of foreign currency, the delays in payments (currently negotiated at 360 days, due to the deterioration of the balance of payments ). However, despite the bureaucratic constraints, the new foreign investment law can deliver growth opportunities for Made in Italy in various sectors, including instrumental mechanics, plastic materials and the chemical sector in support of biotechnology and drug development. In an optimistic scenario, SACE estimates an additional export of Italian goods between 2015 and 2019 of approximately 220 million, while, in a slow improvement of the operating context, the greater export would amount to 70 million.
Here then is that the gradual and controlled opening of the economy to foreign investment represents a first step towards the modernization of the country. Opportunities for investors must be seized in sectors considered strategic: tourism (see the construction of hotel and residential complexes, marinas, golf courses), pharmaceutical industry, medical-health and diagnostic equipment, food processing, port and airport infrastructure and, in perspective, the banking-insurance sector. However, this renewed attention requires caution in risk assessment due to a series of stringent regulations and a difficult operating environment. Indeed it remains significantly high risk of non-payment and delays due to restrictions on the transfer and availability of currency, since not all state structures have sufficient funds for purchases abroad.
