Liberation is an Italian holiday, but since Sunday evening there is also an air of liberation in France. Not so much, or at least not yet, from the populism of Front National, which looked like the announced winner in the wake of Brexit and Trump (and of the numerous terrorist attacks suffered by France, the last one just a few days before the vote) and who instead will appear in the ballot on May 7 as an underdog, as much as from the traditional parties. Yes, because the loss of consensus of the Republican party, which in 2007 with Sarkozy had obtained over 30% in the first round, and above all of the Socialist party, returning from a government experience with Hollande judged by many to be disastrous and plummeted to historic low, 6%It was a real hemorrhage.
FAREWELL FIFTH REPUBLIC – The first indication of the French vote is therefore the end of the Fifth Republic, the one marked by the dualism between the left and Gaullists: both lost millions and millions of votes, scoring their worst score ever, on the socialist front even worse - and it was difficult to do - than Lionel Jospin flop of 2002, when he collected a disappointing 17% by sending Le Pen senior by a handful of votes in the second round, then asphalted by Chirac who was confirmed at the Elysée. That was the only time in which one of the two historic parties on the French political scene did not "qualify" for the ballot.
This time they are even out both, in favor of Emmanuel Macron, who was part of the last and contested government, but who was then able to make a small masterpiece by filling in the many empty spaces of an electorally disintegrated country, as also demonstrated by the surprising 19% obtained by the left-wing radical Mélenchon and the same 21,5% of Marine Le Pen, the other beneficiary of the knockout of the big parties. The daughter of art, who has depopulated in deep France unlike Macron, plebiscitated in Paris and in the big cities, has indeed obtained less than what the polls on the eve and, in percentage terms, of the 2015 regionals indicated, but however, he improved his party's all-time support record, who even puts exit from the EU and the single currency before Macron's euro-enthusiasm: 7,64 million votes, against 6,42 in 2012 and 6,82 in the regional elections in December 2015. Father Jean- In 2002 Marie reached the ballot with much less (5,55 million votes) and in fact lost clearly, collecting less than 18%, the same percentage she actually obtained in the first round.
THE BALLOT – Fifteen years ago all the voters, excluding the loyalists of the extreme right, therefore went to vote "against" the FN in the second round, preferring (even holding their nose, as they said at the time with a Montanellian expression) to confirm Chirac with a consensus which this time is not even hypothesized by the polls, which see Macron as a winner but "only" with 63-64%. The picture has changed a lot: the crisis and terrorism have made anti-politics grow, Macron does not have a solid party behind him (but only a movement, En Marche, founded just a year ago), and so far he has obtained the endorsement of socialists and republicans, who however do not bring much in the dowry, but not that of Mélenchon , who has vaguely hinted that he does not want to support Le Pen, without however taking sides – for now – openly with the rising star of European politics.
Macron, who is not yet 40 and already boasts a career as banker to the Rothschild family and as Minister of the Economy, graduated in philosophy with a thesis on Machiavelli and is the man who is currently saving Europe: the this was seen with the reaction of the financial markets but also with the applause of economists and political leaders from all over the world, starting with the former US president Barack Obama. He has already been able to convince 8,6 million French people and bowls still he starts from a million votes ahead of his opponent, a supporter of Frexit, of one-way friendship with Putin and of social and economic policies that favor "first of all the French citizens": "I want to be the president of the patriotic against the threat of nationalists”, Macron replied, summarizing the essence of the confrontation.
LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS – But for him, should he be elected President of the Republic, the pitfalls would not end. The trust of the French and the euphoria of Brussels and the markets have been collected, would find itself facing another stumbling block within a few weeks: the legislative elections. In fact, the French electoral system provides that the President of the Republic is elected directly and with a separate session with respect to the one that calls the citizens to decide the composition of the Parliament, which will then express a premier and a government. It is a system reminiscent of the American one, in which it is foreseen – and it does not happen infrequently – that a president, as happened to Obama himself in the last part of his mandate, does not have a majority in the assembly.
For Emmanuel Macron, whose program focuses mainly on an unprecedented cut in public spending and the abolition of the housing tax for 80% of those who now pay it, as well as on a new European project, there is a risk. But there is also the way to overcome it. As? First of all, by exploiting the long wave of a possible success in the second round, which could also be triumphant according to the sensations. The fact that a pro-European candidate, in a moment of strong sovereign tendencies (including France), has overtaken the favorite Le Pen suggests a vote that is perhaps more anti-Le Pen than anything else, but also the fact that there would be no no reason not to confirm it in the general elections in June. The road to populism was already paved on Sunday, yet it hasn't made it through.
Then, there is the possibility of making alliances: it is clear that Macron alone will never have an absolute majority in Parliament, but he has already worked with the Socialist Party as a minister in the last government, while the right will easily wink at him given its liberal matrixespecially on labor and social policy issues. In fact, Macron proposes not to touch pensions (Fillon even wanted to raise the retirement age to 65, from the current 62) and is in favor of confirming the controversial Loi Travail, the French-style Jobs Act. Precisely for this reason there remains the doubt of being able to count on the seats that Mélenchon will eventually be able to take home, who instead would like to lower pensions to 60 years and increase the minimum wage (Smic) from the current 1.150 euros net to 1.300, taxing at 90 % income equal to 400 thousand euros per year. But it is too early to make these calculations. And anyway, in France as in other presidential or semi-presidential systems, the so-called "cohabitation" is foreseen: not having a clear majority in the Chambers could make Macron struggle more than necessary on some reforms, a bit like what happened to the Renzi government with the pact of the Nazarene, but it certainly wouldn't question his mandate. A mandate which will be decided on 7 May and which will mark, in one way or another, the future of Europe.
