The formal crisis was resolved very quickly and no one doubts the good will of the new president Paolo Gentiloni but there is no doubt that the results of the referendum have opened the electoral campaign. Which promises to be long: if we voted in the autumn of 2017, it would be 10 months with the government being careful not to affect the interests of potential voters. It therefore seems realistic to state that in this period, which is combined with the referendum campaign (which lasted at least about 6 months) in which the government has thought more about trying to convince voters to vote yes, for economic reforms (where by definition the " losers" are always clearly identifiable and compact in defending their interests while the "winners" are rarely able to perceive the advantages, however not immediate) if they will be seen few.
Perhaps the government will be able to put a patch on those reforms of the Renzi government that the constitutional and administrative judges have rejected (banks and public administration). On the other hand, it cannot be excluded that even the "good school" and the Jobs Act will be called into question and that we will see some public finance from the electoral cycle (gifts and presents left and right and unfortunately the recent stability is not a good precedent). The reform of the taxation of the first home will remain (certainly not very convincing from the point of view of fiscal balances), some tax advantages for companies and the new procurement code. Is it too pessimistic to say that compared to where we were in February 2014 (beginning of the Renzi government) we will have completed a rather small stretch of road on the road to economic reforms?
In this period we will be able to witness bombastic promises in the economy for the post-election period: the prospect of a double course of the currency can be aired rather than that we will have a wonderful economic growth with the green economy. In reality, politics will hardly deal with how to make the country's economy grow in the medium term, with how to reduce the gap with Europe. She will be quite busy setting the rules of the game to establish who will have power and how many will have to share it (remember that we are starting from 23 parliamentary groups that have risen to the Colle). The weakening on the external front is inevitable. The European Commission is asking for reforms and we spend a year and a half discussing first the Constitution and then the electoral law. What credit could we get on refugee policy, on reducing public budgetary constraints, on completing the banking union?
Luckily Draghi continues to grant us credit. But he also recommends the need for structural reforms at every opportunity. With the recent extension of QE it gave us until December 2017; "beyond if necessary", in any case of a smaller amount and even less, probably, beyond November 2019, when his mandate expires. Three years may be a long time to make effective economic reforms, but for a country that has been waiting for them for twenty years and with political institutions that proceed with the speed of the sloth and moreover bogged down in the proportional system, will they be enough?
