M5S splits: Di Maio leaves with 60 parliamentarians and displaces Conte. What effects will there be on Draghi and the Democratic Party?

Eventually the Five Stars have split. Luigi Di Maio, who since he became foreign minister, has overturned his initial orientations and discovered the Atlanticist and pro-European vocation and full support for the Draghi government and its prime minister, has broken the delay by abandoning the house he had helped to found - that of the Five Stars – and gave birth to a new movement that will be called “Together for the future”. They joined 60 parliamentarians which will give life to autonomous groups both in the House and in the Senate. Consequently the Five Stars are no longer the first group either in Montecitorio or in Palazzo Madama: the first group becomes the League. "Polvere di 5Stelle" significantly headlines this morning's "la Repubblica".

Di Maio: enough ambiguity about Russia, we are Euro-Atlantic with Draghi. Enough hate

"Faced with Putin's atrocities, we had to choose: we cannot afford ambiguity in deciding whether to be on the side of those who defend democracy - like Ukraine, which defended Europe with courage and sacrifice - or on the side of those who are blackmailing us with gas like Russia”: so he said Di Maio in the press conference where announced the exit from the Five Stars. No more ambiguity and no more hate.

"Defending pro-European and Atlanticist values ​​cannot be a sin – added the Foreign Minister addressing the grillini – and thinking of picking the stability of the Government in a delicate moment like this is irresponsible: war is not a media show”. In the face of Russia's endorsement of the positions of the Five Stars - Di Maio increased the dose - there had to be "indignation and not indifference". Di Maio confessed that the exit from M5S “it is a painful choice” but that, above all in dramatic circumstances, “it takes the courage of the truth”, without renouncing self-criticism, because “one is not like the other”.

M5S split: what will Conte do now?

Apparently the grillini are celebrating Di Maio's exit ("We got rid of the ballast") but in reality the split is the sign of their failure: not only because they lose primacy among the parliamentary groups to the advantage of the League but because their political and electoral future it becomes very uncertain and could become irrelevant. At the moment Conte continues to support the Conte government ma it is clear that to differentiate himself from Di Maio he will have to accentuate the distinction from Draghi and try to save what can be saved on the electoral level by looking at the more populist wing of the Movement. There are those who say they could think of getting closer to Leu, but only time will clarify the political horizon.

As for the Government, Conte's temporary support is not an insurance policy for Draghi, because the positions of the Five Stars, without Di Maio's counterweight, become more wavering and many believe that the proof of the truth will arrive in the autumn on the budget manoeuvre, when Conte could raise the bar by listening to the most populist and demagogic sirens.

For now, the former prime minister remains in the balance: on an electoral level his space is on the left but to think that his profile, institutional until now, could also function at the helm of an extreme left force, both in terms of economic and social policy and on that of foreign policy, everything remains to be demonstrated. The risk of irrelevance becomes very strong. Certainly, if the inclination of the grillini becomes increasingly maximalist, the alliance with the Democratic Party will become impossible.

Di Maio's split, albeit shared in content, displaces the Democratic Party and undermines the wide field

In addition to the Government, the most concerned about the possible effects of the split of the Five Stars is certainly the Pd and its secretary Enrico Letta, who will speak in the House today and perhaps clarify his point of view on the new political situation. The Democratic Party is not only worried for possible repercussions on the Government if Conte will accentuate the populist and sovereign drift, but he is worried about his own electoral strategy.

So far the Democratic Party and Letta have focused on so-called "broad field" that is, on an alliance based mainly on the Five Stars to hope to win the next political elections against the center-right. A strategy that had already fueled increasingly widespread disagreements in the Pd house regarding the reliability of Conte and the Five Stars, which would become ever greater if the grillini moved more and more to the left, questioning not only the Draghi government but the fundamental choices of foreign policy and economic and social policy.

That's why it's gaining ground the attempt by the Democratic Party to reform the electoral law in a proportional sense, but the time available is short and convincing the League, which does not want to break the center-right coalition by making money on the positional income despite the disagreements with Meloni, appears to be a prohibitive undertaking.