Lvmh makes Tod's fly more than Ferragni. Moncler moves back

Et voila. To seal the extraordinary season of French luxury – because the brands are on the European Stock Exchange like the champions of Silicon Valley on the Nasdaq – the news arrived yesterday that the liaison between Lvmh and Tod's, so far little more than symbolic given a by now historic stake of 3,2%, is now a more solid axis, guaranteed by 10% in the hands of Bernard Arnault. Of course, the group remains in the hands of the Della Valle family, with a 63% stake, but fate is sealed: when and how Bernard Arnault, in any case linked by a long-standing friendship with Diego Della Valle, will decide, the brand from the Marches will enrich the collection of brands (up to now 71) of the flagship of the stock exchanges of the Old Continent. At least that's what the market thinks, which is gratifying today Tod’s of an increase of 9,6% to 38,7 euros against the average price paid by Lvmh of 33,10 euros based on the average of the last two weeks. That is, those marked by what commentators have called the Ferragni effect. In fact, the national blondie announced her entry into the Tod's board on the evening of 8 April. The morning after, the share went from 28,72 euros to 32,74 with a rise of 14% which was then consolidated in the following sessions. In short , the Ferragni effect acted as a veil to the contemporary advance of Lvmh, shielding the curiosities of the markets. Chapeau, Monsieur Della Valle.

The operation is however the worthy confirmation of the golden spring of Parisian luxury, first of all to shine again after the pandemic thanks to the leadership on all markets, China in the lead, and the return to 2019 revenues. It is thanks to the success of the maisons that the sector can boast multiples that make technology or leaders in e-commerce: thanks to them, the Stoxx index of luxury and retail companies records multiples that are historically much more expensive than the average with a price/earnings ratio of 64 times. The quarterly reports offered confirmation of the golden age. After the boom of Lvmh it was the turn of Kering (Gucci), finally of Hermès.  

The case of Italian-style luxury is quite different, which seems to attract the attention of the big investment houses only when M&A operations are in the offing. The latest confirmation comes this morning from Moncler -6,99% sold the day after the quarterly data is presented: sales +21% at constant exchange rates. The numbers are good, even if the comparison for the first quarter of 2019 is less favorable than for other groups in the sector, an element perhaps due to the different geographical exposure or, more easily, to the lesser speculative appeal once the patron Remo Ruffini has for now rejected the advances of the more solid groups. Waiting for Exor, bien sûr.