Sure, i luxury and fashion goods, when the winds of war blow, are certainly not considered assets in which to take refuge. Several analyses highlight the drop in buyers, even the wealthiest ones, in recent months characterized by great geopolitical tensions. But the most optimistic they trust that thehigh quality of Italian production can withstand the elements.
I sector stocks are very volatile on the stock market, but capable of reacting positively, as soon as even minimal signs of easing are glimpsed: the international stock markets are taking a breather in these hours after the tensions of the past few days, riding the Trump postponement of a direct military intervention alongside Israel against Iran. Thus this morning, in a Piazza Affari on the rise (Ftse Mib +1,02%), BRUNELLO CUCINELLI is at +0,59%, Moncler at +0,14% and Salvatore Ferragamo at +1,31% as well as Hermes, lvmh +0,09% and Kering +2,74% in Paris and Burberry in London.
Altagamma optimistic about Italian high-end
“Wars are having an ever greater impact and the fronts are ever more numerous,” said Matteo Lunelli, president of high gamma, presenting the update of the Altagamma-Bain Monitor on the world markets of luxury personal goods. “We are witnessing a decline in the purchasing power of consumers which has also had an impact on luxury goods, especially aspirational ones. It is expected that the 2025 is a year of decline and our market cannot be immune to the context". However, added Lunelli, "we continue to be optimists, because the difficulties are exogenous to a sector that still has very solid fundamentals. And the'Italian high-end has all the ingredients to provide experiences and the savoir-faire to satisfy even the most demanding more demanding consumers".
Altagamma-Bain: Three Scenarios for the Global Personal Luxury Goods Market in 2025
According to the Altagamma-Bain Monitor, in first quarter of 2025 the global market for personal luxury goods, which had closed 2024 with a slight contraction at 364 billion, recorded a decline between -3% and -1% compared to the previous year at current rates. As for the forecasts for all the 2025, net of the uncertainty that characterizes the global context, it is hypothesized three scenarios: one optimistic, which sees a moderate rebound (between -2% and +2%); one more likely, which predicts a moderate contraction, between -5% and -2%; and one more serious, with a significant contraction: between -9% and -5%.
The most in difficulty are the USA and China. Europe and Japan are stable. The Middle East is running
In the geographical subdivision of the Monitor, they are United States and China continental presents the greatest difficulties. Europe and Japan appear more stable, although showing signs of slowing down, mainly linked to the decline in and consumption connected to it. Middle East, Latin America (with Mexico in the lead) and Southeast Asia confirm the positive trend of recent months. In particular, "the Middle East is the area that is performing best", being also the "primary destination of Russians, who are now also moving to Singapore and Bali", specified Federica Levato, senior partner and head of Emea Fashion and Luxury at Bain & Company.
Some high-end sectors are holding up well: from hospitality to catering, from private jets to supercars
From the point of view of product categories, private jets, yachts, high-end cars, clothing and jewelry continue to post solid results, while wines and spirits, watches and leather goods slow down. The positive performance of the experiential luxury: consumers continue to want to live experiences like hospitality, cruises on smaller ships and for slower, more immersive journeys, the Catering high-end and gourmet experiences.
The Crisis of Online and Social Followers. Even Uhnwis Save
The study also notes that from 2022 onwards, research online have decreased for more than 40% of brands, the growth in the number of followers on social media has dropped by 90% and the engagement rate dropped by 40%. Even the Uhnwi (Ultra-High Net Worth Individuals, the ultra-rich with a net worth of more than 30 million dollars) “show a progressive negative interest, due to prices but also to limited creativity and innovation"He stressed Claudia D'Arpizio, senior partner and global head of Fashion and Luxury at Bain & Company. “Brands are working to increase the experiential content of retail, while also changing aesthetics and creative teams.”
A Bernstein report also highlights that “the growth in consumer spending high-end consumers has remained robust, despite the slowdown in demand for luxury goods in general” and that “companies exposed to the high-end segment have recorded organic growth of more than 90% in the last 12 consecutive quarters”. So much so that all in all, even the stock prices have recorded an interesting trend.
If anything, Bernstein says macroeconomic uncertainty has begun to weigh on HNWI spending intentions. Bernstein cites research from Agility, between March 17 and April 25, collecting a combination of pre- and post-"Liberation Day" responses, when Trump announced global tariffs, which were then suspended until early July. Across all income brackets, panelists reported a sharp drop in spending intentions in luxury in the first half of 25. “We expect this to translate into a slowdown in luxury spending growth in the near term,” they say at Bernstein, who recalls that US consumers seem to have been the hardest hit. Instead, consumers Chinese continue to prefer jewelry.
Eyes on the giant LVMH. Morgan Stanley and Rbc Capital lower targets
The global luxury giant lvmh is often used as a litmus test for the sector. Between mid and late July, the group will publish its first-half results and Morgan Stanley and Rbc Capital Markets have revised their target prices downwards, also underlining the period of difficulty due to a slow and inorganic recovery of purchases in China and US duties on Europe. So much so that the market now expects that the group's over 75 brands will undergo an internal review with possible disposals or IPOs. The stock is moving above par today, but since the beginning of the year it has lost over 28% for approximately 228 billion in capitalization.
Analysts fear a difficult semester, especially for the leading division of fashion and leather goods. Morgan Stanley has lowered the target price from 560 to 510 euros, maintaining the equalweight recommendation. Analyst Edouard Aubin also cut his second-quarter guidance for the fashion and leather goods division, expecting organic sales to contract by 7,5% year-on-year. “While most luxury stocks are set to see earnings per share estimates cut, LVMH appears particularly vulnerable and appears to be underperforming its main peers in the sector,” a note said.
The RBC Capital Markets, while maintaining a more positive outlook with an outperform recommendation, has significantly reduced the target price, from 680 to 550 euros. Analyst Piral Dadhania expects a further slowdown in revenue growth in the key fashion & leather goods segment and a deterioration in operating margins. “The market environment for LVMH is improving moderately, although it is still not optimal,” Dadhania wrote. However, he added, earnings revisions will continue to be negative in the short term.
