The second is good. After having postponed the trip, initially scheduled for March 26, due to pneumonia, the Brazilian president Lula finally lands in China, on Easter Monday, and will remain there for almost the whole week. The most awaited meeting is obviously the one with the counterpart Xi Jinping: for Lula, who is attempting to rebuild Brazil's international reputation after the isolationist four years of Bolsonaro, this is the second major foreign mission since he took office for his third term, in January, after the one in February in Washington to meet Joe Biden.
How did Lula's trip to the USA go?
And this time too Lula plays a lot: although Brazil's credibility is recovering, as evidenced by increased market confidence and the reopening by Germany and Norway of the aid fund for the Amazon, suspended under Bolsonaro, it didn't go very well in the US.
A cold joint press release had in fact leaked differences especially on the subject of war in Ukraine. Lula, despite Biden's pressure, remains an ambiguously equidistant advocate of peace, has never openly condemned Russia, which he considers a strategic partner, and aspires to create a "peace club" with some countries such as India and China. That is why even in Beijing the hot topic will undoubtedly be the positioning of the two countries, and the fact that in the meantime the president of France Emmanuel Macron and the president of the EU Commission have also presented themselves to Xi Jinping Ursula Von der Leyen. The latter too have asked for an intervention in favor of peace, but with a very different interpretation: "We are counting on you to bring Russia back to reason", Macron told Xi, which is very different from being essentially neutral.
Economic interests on the Brazil-China axis
The visit of Lula, who is leaving Brasilia at a time when his popularity is limping (after 3 months the approval rating is similar to that for Bolsonaro four years ago, i.e. one of the lowest ever at the start of his mandate, and the economy slows down to +0,8%, worse pace than South America), however it is not only important for war issues. on theBrazil-China axis in fact, huge reciprocal economic interests rotate. Brazil in 2021 became the first Recipient country of Chinese investments worldwide: after the decline in 2020, the increase was 208%, with the total value in the calendar year at almost 6 billion dollars, the highest figure since 2017, when it was 8,8 billion but with the same number of projects. And this time too we are dealing with strategic projects, focused above all in the fields of energy, telecommunications, but also industry and infrastructure.
Beijing, on the other hand, is in turn the leading market for Brazilian exports, with a share of 31,3% and a value of almost 90 billion dollars in 2021. We are talking above all, as is well known, of raw materials, of the very precious soy but also of beef, whose exports had suffered a setback in recent months following Beijing's decision to suspend purchases due to alleged cases of mad cow disease. At the end of March China has lifted the embargo, making Brazilian agribusiness breathe a sigh of relief: exports to the Asian giant alone are worth 73% of the total.
Technology at the center of the Lula-Xi meeting
All these interests could be partially threatened by some choices made by Lula, who confirmed on the eve of his departure for Beijing that he would suspend the maxi privatization plan initiated by Bolsonaro. These were strategic assets that China was about to get its hands on, such as the Port of Santos (the second largest in the country) o the post office, but also the tlc telebras and the oil and gas company PPSA extension. Who knows if during the meeting Xi Jinping will be able to convince his South American counterpart to at least partially reopen the discussion. Lula for her part has the goal of taking home as many technology partnerships as possible, from 5G (whose diffusion in Brazil is proceeding rapidly: it is the most advanced country in Latin America) to 6G up to photovoltaic cells and artificial intelligence, without forgetting semiconductors, a market in which Brazil occupies a strategic role, seen which is one of the major producers, while China is the leader in the backend, i.e. in the finalization of the chips, from testing to encapsulation. On the frontend, however, Beijing pays duty compared to Taiwan and Korea, and this is the reason for the alliance with Brazil, on whose territory there are already 11 large manufacturing companies, but without the know-how for the backend.
The Asian partner would therefore make it available, which does not rule out even opening factories on Brazilian soil, in this perspective. This partnership is really likely to move significantly the balance of the technology market, which is what Beijing is focusing on the most to establish itself not only as the leading economy in the world, but also to create and consolidate a hegemony. Lastly, Lula's trip will also be an opportunity to participate in her inauguration in Shanghai former Dauphine Dilma Rousseff, president of Brazil from 2011 to 2016, as president of the New Development Bank of the BRICS: in the turn of seats it was the turn of the South American country, and the financial institution, founded in Brazil, also includes Russia and China.