The Italian GDP could be revised upwards by 1-2 percentage points. In the real economy, however, no revolution is in sight. What changes is the method by which gross domestic product is calculated. In any case, the revision of the methodological criterion decided by Eurostat should not have a decisive impact on the figure taken into greater consideration on the basis of the Maastricht agreements, i.e. the deficit-GDP ratio, which in 2013 would drop from 3% to 2,9 % about. Marginal filings also on the debt-GDP ratio (from 132,9% forecast by the government to 130,5/131,8%).
As for 2014 GDP, the latest official government estimate is +1,1%, against the approximately +0,7% on which the main national and international forecasters converge (including Istat).
The new methodology, which is part of a worldwide review process, will be adopted in the EU from September this year. Among the planned changes there is in particular that which concerns spending on research and development, currently counted as a cost, which will instead be included among investments, to the benefit of GDP. This change is worth an increase in the EU area's 2011 GDP of 1,9%.
A similar treatment will also be reserved for arms spending (impact of +0,1% on EU GDP in 2011), while among other changes there will also be that relating to the calculation of the impact on imports and exports of goods sent abroad for one processing step.
Italy, due to the reduced investments in research and development, is in the group of countries that will benefit to a limited extent from the new methodology. Also for Spain and Portugal an increase in GDP of 1/2 percentage points more with regard to the 2011 figure is quantified. For Germany and France the benefit would be even greater, between 2 and 3 percentage points of GDP. For Finland and Sweden, the positive contribution of the new methodology could reach up to 5% of GDP (the estimate always refers to the year 2011).
The Commission document recalls that the new methodology has led in the USA, where it was adopted in August 2013, to an increase in GDP of 3,5% for the years from 2010 to 2012.
