The era of low cost flights it's over? To listen Ryanair, the queen of low-cost airlines, it would seem so. Last week Michael O'Leary, number one of the Irish giant, announced that for the next five years (and, probably, for many more to come) the minimum rate will go from 10 to 50 euros. The reason? Simple: the increase in the cost of fuel has now made the business model based on bargain rates unsustainable. “The increase in ticket prices is driven by a dramatic increase in jet fuel costs – explains Keir Maclean, thematic analyst GlobalData – Since the beginning of 2022, the price of fuel has increased by 90%. Ryanair is the first low-cost airline to publicly declare the end of super-low-cost flights. However, fuel price inflation is not unique to Ryanair and will drive up overheads across the industry, negatively impacting not only Ryanair, but competitors such as EasyJet e Wizz Air. This is not good news for travellers”.
The price of airline tickets has already skyrocketed
If we think only in terms of inflation, there is no doubt that the rise in raw material prices, greatly aggravated by the war in Ukraine, has produced a Copernican revolution in airline accounts. For months, consumer associations such as Codacons and Unc have been reporting that air transport is one of the most suffering sectors due to price increases, which have naturally been passed on to users. According to estimates by the National Consumer Union, last month the ticket price to move in Europe you are soaring 168,4% compared to July 2021, while the bill for intercontinental travel rose by 125,7%.
But really low cost seats have never been more than 3-5%
However, this does not necessarily mean that the low-cost flight market is destined for enormous changes. In reality, depending on the routes and periods, in the past it was already necessary to pay out several hundred euros to fly Ryanair, as students and off-site workers are well aware who have to pay every year a cost that is anything but "low" to go home, for example, at Christmas time. Giulio Manunta, commercial aviation executive for several airlines, explained in an interview with Corriere della Sera that airline tickets for a few tens of euros have always been "more of a marketing tool than an actual revenue one” and that normally only “3-5% of seats on a flight are offered at those prices: all the other places cost progressively more”.
No sea change coming
If this is the scenario, it is understandable why Carlo Borromeo, president of the Assaeroporti confindustria associations, told the Rest of the Carlino is "the end of an era" is not to be expectednor "a negative impact on traffic at airports". On the contrary: with the end of the pandemic-related restrictions the resumption of air travel it was dizzying, to the point that, "if we continue at this pace - added Borromeo - we will return to the 2019 volumes already in the next few weeks: not in 2025, as initially expected".
On the same line Pierluigi Di Palma, president of the National Civil Aviation Authority: “The earthquake that many have feared will not happen – he said again to Rest of the Carlino ENAC's number one – It won't be the end of an era, but the beginning of a new phase in the life cycle of low cost airlines”. Also because, in the meantime, the number of passengers will continue to grow: "The price increases so far are not such as to discourage travel plans - continued Di Palma - Our forecasts speak on the contrary of an increase in air traffic, in the next twenty years, from the current 4 to 8 billion people”.
