Chinese Stock Exchanges Rise Again on the Wave of “Bad” News: Shanghai +2%, Shenzhen +3% does even better. The expectation of a new rate cut to stimulate growth is pushing the lists. Hong Kong +0,6%. The PMI manufacturing index, which measures the trend of business purchases, in fact stopped in May at 50,2 (from 50,1) just above the boundary between growth and stagnation. At this rate, writes Nomura, lhe Chinese GDP growth in 2015 will not go beyond 6,6%. Weak Tokyo -0,4%: the streak of increases (eleven consecutive) of the Nikkei index is interrupted.
The surveys of the manufacturing index in Europe represent today's most important macro appointment.
On the geopolitical front, the latest "fire" by Greek premier Alexis Tsipras is taking center stage, accusing the Monetary Fund of making "absurd requests" from the columns of Le Monde. The agreement, which Tsipras himself considered "almost done", seems to be on the high seas.
The impact of Matteo Renzi's first electoral stop on the price lists and the confirmation of the advance of populist forces in Italy should be verified.
MARKET MOVERS: GREECE, ECB, US LABOR, OPEC
At the center of attention the directorate of the ECB, scheduled for Wednesday, which will be followed by Mario Draghi's press conference. Many topics under discussion: the trend of Qe and the update of economic forecasts, starting with inflation. It will also be an opportunity to take stock of the EU reform, as Mario Draghi sees it. Above all, however, the Greece dossier stands out, the most significant threat to the eurozone.
It will be a hot weekend:
1) The Greek installment of 5 million expires on Friday 300th to be returned to the Monetary Fund. It is by no means excluded that the Washington institute agrees to postpone the deadline, provided that by the end of the month Athens repays the entire amount (1,6 billion) to be paid by June and, no less important, has not taken shape a credible financial plan from agree with the Brussels Group.
2) In the same afternoon, data on the US labor market will be released, the statistic that will count most in the assessments of the next Fed meeting in mid-June. Data on car sales and consumption trends will also be released during the week.
3) Lastly, again on Friday, OPEC closed-door meeting in Vienna: the cartel should confirm the current production target, pending the end of the sanctions against Iran.
MILAN ALSO RISES IN MAY, BEST EUROPEAN STOCK EXCHANGE
It's not an easy season for emerging stock exchanges, under the threat of rising US rates, but the May ranking rewards "exotic" lists. At the top of the world ranking is the Venezuela +92,3% in the last 30 days. A bizarre trend that can be explained by the trend of the currency, at the mercy of a disastrous economy: on Friday, 400 bolivars were needed for a dollar on the black market, or 67 times the official exchange rate. Followed by the Stock Exchange of Jamaica (+5,44%) and Botswana (+3,5%).
Set aside the Guinness Book of Records curiosities, it stands out Nasdaq leap +7,78% in May, the S&P 500 index +3,06% and the Dow Jones +1,54% also rose.
Roaring month also Shanghai +3,9%. Since the beginning of the year, only the Brazilian Stock Exchange has been in negative territory (in euros).
The position of Piazza Affari is brilliant, despite the limited drop of 1,3% in the last week. The FtseMib index closed May with a monthly progress of 1,9% which brings the gain since the beginning of 2015 to +23%, one of the best results in the world, surpassed only by Shanghai (+37%). If we then look at the Milanese index of mid-cap companies (FtseMidCap), the increase since January 32st is 25%. ????If the performances of the other Stock Exchanges are also calculated in euros, the rise of Piazza Affari is also surpassed by the Japanese Stock Exchange (Nikkei +28%) and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (Hang Seng +XNUMX%), due to the devaluation of the single currency due to the QE launched by the ECB. ??
It should be noted that:
a) Piazza Affari beats Frankfurt (+18% from 1 January);
b) Milan has accumulated an advantage of 15 percentage points over Madrid.
THE BPM STAR SHINES AGAIN AT PIAZZA AFFARI
Among the Italian blue chips B.Pop. Milan +75% is confirmed as the best title of 2015.?? They climb the rankings Yoox +62% e Finmeccanica +57%. Always on top Moncler+56% e FCA +53%.
Rounding out the top ten: Banco Popolare +52%, Mediolanum+47%, Azimut+45%, B. Pop. Emilia Romagna +45%, Ferragamo +41%.
Only two stocks recorded a negative performance in the first 5 months. At the bottom of the ranking: Enel Green Power -1%, Generali +5%, Tenaris +6%, Snam [SRG.MI] +10%, Ansaldo Sts +13%, Eni +14%, Terna +16%, Tod's + 17%, UniCredit +20%.
However, it should be noted that some stocks, such as Snam and Terna, have in the meantime distributed dividends exceeding 3%. A special case is Monte Paschi -5%, in the midst of the capital increase.
BOLLORE' FORMAT TELECOM AT THE BROADBAND GP
The big news from Italian telecommunications will be tested by the market this morning, while awaiting the publication of the decree which will allocate the funds (just under 7 billion) to support investment in broadband. Telecom Italia, in particular, has now put the Telco season behind it. Indeed, the Argentinian Authority has given the go-ahead for the demerger of Telco, which indirectly holds 22,4% of the ordinary share capital of Telecom Italia. The most significant share, 8,3% held by Telefonica, was turned over to Vivendi which aims to rise to 15%, also through the 1,6% which Mediobanca, which intends to sell by June. In the meantime, joint studies with Enel for joint initiatives on the broadband front are continuing. The electricity company specified that it has no intention of returning to the telecommunications sector: the multi-utility season is over.
In the meantime, the other consortium for Italian broadband took shape on Friday: the Fondo Strategico Italiano (Cassa Depositi e Prestiti group), Wind and Vodafone signed a letter of intent for the creation of a national fiber infrastructure through Metroweb. The press release informs that "the project is open to other operators and investors according to the guidelines of the Ultra Broadband plan approved by the government".
FCA, TODAY THE DATA ON SALES IN ITALY AND THE USA
The greatest losses on the lists were those of Automotive stocks on Friday, with the Stoxx index of the sector down by 2,3% in tow by Volkswagen and Daimler which suffered losses of more than 2%. Fiat Chrysler limited the damage: -0,8%.
Among the most important data of the day, the results of the car sales in Italy but also in the United States. FCA should confirm the progress in the Bel Paese, while the US market should hold. However, the thorn for Marchionne these days is Brazil.
In the call following the Exor meeting, John Philip Elkann confirmed his full support for the CEO's strategies, including advances for alliances and mergers with other manufacturers. "The e-mail sent to GM – he said – was not the only one". And in the event that any operations jeopardize the leadership of the financial company in the four-wheeler group, "the Agnelli family will not be an obstacle" guaranteed Elkann.
STM CONTINUES THE PUSH OF THE CHIP SECTOR MERGER
The wind of mergers that is making the chip sector vibrate promises to drive Stm again. The stock moved last week on the heels of Singapore-based Avago's purchase of Broadcomm. This time it should be to move the waters Intel: the US giant is one step away from buying Altera. The value of the operation, the most important in the history of Andy Grove's company, is 15 billion dollars.
MONTE PASCHI, TOTO-PRESIDENT TAKES OFF
The second week of the capital increase is underway. In the first 5 days, the share price fluctuated from a minimum of 1,753 euros to a maximum of 2,14 euros. ??The option right (up 4% to 6,01 euros on Friday) fluctuated between a minimum of 5,235 euros and a maximum of 6,23 euros. Since the start of the operation, the option right has remained at a slight discount compared to the theoretical parity.
In the meantime, the total nominations are going crazy. The names of Pietro Modiano, Marcello Messori and Massimo Tononi are named to succeed Alessandro Profumo.
SEGAFREDO, ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE AT THE LOWEST PRICE
Wednesday 3 will do his debut in Piazza Affari Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group. The company that controls Segafredo coffee is starting to start at a price of 11,6 €, to the minimum limit of the fork indicated during the placement phase (11,6-11,9 euros). The demand from institutions, represented in part by the large US funds (including BlackRock and George Soros) was one and a half times the offer, the demand from private individuals was more lively, which will go over the 11% initially forecast.
