Industry is recovering (even if it slows down in the last quarter), craftsmanship is struggling, but overall Lombard manufacturing is emerging from the crisis, billing more than the national average.
According to the data of Confidustria and UnionCamere, and the analysis of Prometeia, Lombardy closed 2010 with a GDP of +1,9%, against the 1,3% of the Italian average, despite a slowdown in growth (+1%), in any case relative compared to that of the country (+0,6 %). Also in comparison with the other Regions, Lombardy seems to hold the primacy, questioned only by Veneto in 2010 (+0,6% against +0,1), a gap that according to forecasts will become increasingly consistent in perspective: in 2012 , a year considered particularly difficult, Lombardy's GDP will be the only positive (+0,2), Emilia-Romagna will remain stable while all the other regions will decrease (in Italy on average -0,3%). Also in 2014, Lombardy's GDP will be the highest, with an estimated growth of 1,2%.
The impact of the domestic political-economic situation and the international crisis will in any case have an impact on 2012, but Unioncamere's economic analysis shows that industry is maintaining a positive trend, as are business services and exports, while the situation remains difficult for the craft sector and the retail trade.
INDUSTRY – After the 2009 crisis, in the first nine months of this year the industry started to grind again: +2,8% (+5,3 the average from January to September) and growing its turnover by 5,2% on an annual average, despite a slight drop in domestic demand.
The index of industrial production in Lombardy remains in fact stable around 100 (i.e. the same production levels as in 2005), well above the minimum reached in the second quarter of 2009 (86,6), but still far from the maximum of 108,7 reached in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Above all, however, the decline in domestic orders is worrying, down by 1,7%. Foreign demand also fell, but only in the last quarter, while in the first half it had been the engine of the recovery: Lombardy's exports had practically returned to pre-crisis levels, with an increase of 1,5%.
The sectors in the best shape (January-September average) are the iron and steel (+9,5%), mechanics (+7,6%), chemical-pharmaceutical (+5,8%) and footwear (+5,7%). Below the average instead food (+2,2%), textiles and clothing (1,7 and 1,4) and wood-furniture, even down by 1%.
Lightweight cyclical decline in employment (-0,1% for industry), but is compensated for now by the decrease in the percentage of companies that have resorted to the ordinary CIG: 17,4% against 18,8% in the previous period.
CRAFTS – But the most significant deterioration is that ofhandicraft, which denounces a decrease in production of 1% both on the previous quarter and on the same quarter of last year and which sees the production index number crushed to 76 (base 2005=100).
For the artisan companies the turnover is practically stationary with a change of +0,3% compared to the previous quarter and of 0,8% on an annual basis.
Among the craft sectors, only three show year-on-year growth: leather-shoes (+6,9%), mechanics (+2,3%) and iron and steel (+2,1%). The other sectors show negative tendential variations between -7,7% of various manufacturing and -2,9% of wood-furniture.
The employment balance is also negative for the handicraft sector, but the share of companies that used CIG hours in the quarter is stable at 10% as is the share of the total quarterly hours at 1,4%.
Finally, despite the predictions that keep the system afloat, even better if compared to the other Regions, it must be said that they are the expectations of Lombard entrepreneurs are negative: the share of pessimists and those who do not expect improvements is growing, above all for domestic demand (which remains a sore point in the current situation) and employment.
The last quarter of 2011 should already be negative, even if what was done in the first half should keep the balance in surplus, with the possibility of defending oneself even in a very difficult 2012, which will however also be affected by the next measures of the new technical government to quickly get out of the debt crisis.
