The attractiveness of graduates brings enormous economic benefits. Not only in terms of higher growth and level of income, but even before the transfer of resources invested in growing and educating people. In fact, if knowledge determines productivity and therefore is decisive in contributing to the economic development of the territories, the acquisition of this knowledge requires investments, private and public, from birth to graduation to grow and educate people. And when a graduate moves from one region to another, he brings with him the capital invested in his own training.
Based on estimates OECD (Education at a glance, 2011), the North East Foundation has quantified the value of this capital, highlighting that in just one year the North West receives the equivalent of 3,8 billion, with Lombardy taking the lion's share (3,3) and only the Valle d'Aosta in deficit (-9 million). The North-East as a whole has a positive balance (1,4 billion), however with strong differences within it: on the one hand Emilia-Romagna with +1,5 billion and Trentino-Alto Adige with +83 million, on the other Veneto with -72 million and Friuli-Venezia Giulia with -117 million. These estimates were drawn up for 2019, the last pre-pandemic year, as the latter has greatly changed working habits and people's movements.
The consequences of the brain drain
Over time the annual flows add up to huge competitiveness gains or losses, with evident consequences in the income dynamics and in the investment decisions of companies in favor of the most attractive regions and to the detriment of those from which brains flee. Thus, the North East Foundation estimates that in the period 2011-19 the North-West welcomed graduates aged 25-64 equal to an investment value of 16 billion and the North-East 6,8 billion, while the Center saw people leave the equivalent of 159 million and the South of 52 billion. Again, Lombardy star performer with 16,7 billion, followed by Emilia-Romagna with 8,1, while Campania and Sicily bring up the rear with outflows of 14,4 and 12,5 billion accumulated over the nine years. However, if one looks only at movements abroad, even the Lombards prove to be less attractive than other regions across the border, given that they recorded a net emigration of no less than 22,4 thousand graduates in 2011-19. Followed by the Venetians (-9,52 thousand), the Lazio (-9,45) and the Sicilians (-9,39). But while the impoverishment of human capital in Lombardy is decreasing, that of Veneto is rather constant.
Italy as a whole loses over 13 thousand graduates in 2019 and more than 100 in 2011-19, with a loss of human capital equivalent to 3,8 billion in the last pre-pandemic year and 29,3 billion in the entire period considered here. In fact, a competitiveness transfer to other production systems, which traps the country in a vicious spiral of low wages-brain drain-low productivity. The next Note from the Nord Est Foundation will examine the strategies adopted by companies to try to attract and retain young people. As shown by the data in table 1, only Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Trentino-Alto Adige and Liguria recorded a positive migratory balance in the period 2011-2019 for graduates aged 25-64, with a maximum in the first 57.078 and only 16 in the last one. This overall balance is determined by a net loss recorded by all regions with regard to transfers to and from abroad, against interregional balances which are positive in ten regions, but not sufficient to balance the deficit with foreign countries in Piedmont, Veneto, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Umbria and Lazio. It follows that the majority of Italian regions are in a position to see a more or less significant share of the investment made for the training of graduates escape. L'estimated investment for the years of growth and training up to the age of 25, the expected age for graduation, it is equal to 165.000 euros of expenditure incurred by families and 126.939 euros of public expenditure, for a total value of 291.939 euros*.
The greatest loss is that suffered by southern regions, in particular Campania, Sicily and Puglia with cumulative deficits above 10 billion. Lombardy, on the other hand, benefits from over 16,7 billion in inflows, followed by Emilia-Romagna with 8,1 billion in the period considered. While the other northeastern regions alternate the strong deficit of the Veneto, equal to 1,5 billion cumulative (almost as if it had the attractiveness of some central-southern areas of the country), the surplus of Trentino-Alto Adige, for 525 million, and again the deficit of Friuli-Venezia Giulia, for 213 million.
In the North-East between 2011 and 2019 the migratory balance of graduates has always remained positive and has been growing steadily since 2014. This trend is almost exclusively attributable to the figure for Emilia-Romagna, which throughout the period considered showed a significant and growing capacity to attract, plus the positive figure for Trentino , while Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia saw a reduction in the number of resident graduates.
The positive data
The positive figure is the result of ability of Emilia-Romagna to attract people with high training from the other Italian regions, while this territory also sells graduates abroad. A sign that in the international comparison of attractiveness it is a loser. Interregional balances translate, as seen previously, into losses or gains in capital invested for the growth and training of graduates. The Northeast benefits from 3,9 billion in expenses incurred by households in other territories (including abroad) and another three billion in public expenditure made outside the Northeast (including across the border). Overall, the gain is 6,8 billion cumulative in 2011-2019.
*Values were estimated for the household component by the CSC and for the public component by the OECD in the 2021 edition of Education at a Glance.
