Taurus partied until dawn the victory of Mark Rutte, the Dutch premier who managed to overtake the populist Geert Wilders, who gains votes and seats but remains cut off from the possibility of governing. The turnout at the polls was exceptional (82%). It is a stoppage that could weigh on the mood of French voters in view of the duel at the end of April.
The markets were already excited by the Fed's decisions. The US central bank decided, as expected, a quarter-point increase in rates. But Janet Yellen surprised the markets with a dovish attitude, denying those who expected worried and controversial tones towards the White House, which also aims to accelerate the growth rate of GDP beyond sustainable levels according to the Fed.
None of this transpires from the board's final statement which confirms two more rate hikes in 2017 (plus another three in 2018) but flaunts tranquility on the inflation front: a temporary increase in prices of more than 2% would be "symmetrical" to a sustained expansion, so it would not raise fears. What about the president's tax cuts? “It's too early to judge,” Yellen says, determined not to escalate tensions with Donald Trump.
A tactical move, probably, but one very welcome to the financial market. Hence the euphoria of the markets which, moreover, are celebrating the recovery of oil favored by an unpublished Saudi press release which reaffirmed its intention to keep faith with the production cut. Riyadh, which is about to launch the most gigantic placement in the history of the stock exchanges (Aramco, prudential estimate 2 trillion dollars) does not intend to play tricks on the stock exchanges.
JAPANESE RATES UNCHANGED, CHINESE RATES GO UP
First reactions to the US rate hike. Hong Kong followed the Fed with a 25-point hike. China's interbank rate also rose. The Bank of Japan decided this morning to keep the monetary policy lines unchanged: short-term rates at -0,1%, ten-year bonds at zero, purchases of securities on the market for 80 trillion yen a year. The central banks of Switzerland, Turkey and Indonesia also meet on the day.
This morning the reference index of the Asian Stock Exchanges (MSCI Asia Pacific) is at its highest level since mid-2015. Tokyo's Nikkei index rose by 0,1% in the final session. Hong Kong +1,4%, Shanghai +0,6%, Seoul +0,5%, Mumbai +0,4%.
YELLEN APPROVES THE RISE OF US STOCKIES
Wall Street's reaction to the FOMC's decisions was immediate. Stock indexes rose sharply: Dow Jones +0,54%, S&P500 +0,84%. The Nasdaq advanced 0,74% above 5.900 points. The PMI index, the Russell 2000, also rises +1,5%.
The dollar weakened against all world currencies, losing more than 1% against the euro to 1,073.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Bill fell to 2,50% from 2,59% the day before. The two-year period rose to 1,31% from 1,37%.
Gold fell by almost 2% to 1.225 dollars an ounce.
Also following the announcements from the Federal Reserve, yesterday Goldman Sachs cut its recommendation on US equities, from the previous Overweight, to Neutral. At the beginning of the year, the same strategists had written that the S&P would arrive in the first quarter at around 2.400 points, to then reach around 2.300 points towards the end of the year.
During the press conference Janet Yellen cited the advance of Wall Street as an example of an improvement in the financial climate. According to traders, it is the signal that the Fed does not consider the valuations of securities excessive after the increases from 8 November onwards.
TRUMP CONFIRMS: STOP THE GREEN CAR. FIAT CHRYSLER +1,9%
Trump has quantified the changes he intends to make to the federal budget: the resources for the major investments in defense (54 billion dollars) will come from budget cuts by the State Department and the EPA, the environmental protection agency.
During a brief visit to Detroit, the president also assured the big automakers (presented by representatives of GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler) that the green car regulations approved in the Obama era will soon be dismantled, as will the producers asked.
Brilliant in Piazza Affari Fiat Chrysler (+1,9%) which sees the risk of fines from the federal administration moving away.
Tesla has launched a capital increase of 1,15 billion dollars to finance the start of the mass electric car. Elon Musk will subscribe in full for his share.
Apple rally +1,1% to 140,46 dollars: Rbc has increased its targets on the Apple stock. On the other hand, Twitter loses ground (-1,9%) again under the blows of hackers arriving from Russia.
OIL RISES UP, OIL STOCKS GOOD
The recovery of energy stocks was very evident: Exxon +1,2%, Chevron +1,4%.
In Milan, Eni rose by 1,3%, Saipem +1%, Tenaris +2,3%. In Paris Total +1,3%.
For the first time in the week, oil closed up, also thanks to a drop in US inventories: Brent rebounded above 50 dollars, closing at 52,08 (+2,3%). The Wti also rose +2,6% to 48,96 dollars.
MILAN AT THE TOP, PERFORMANCES AND SPREADS DOWN
The European stock markets, cautious in the morning, took the upward path during the day by betting, rightly, on the victory of Mark Rutte in Holland against the Eurosceptics.
In Milan, the Ftse Mib index closed the session well with a recovery of 1,21% to 19.774 points. The other European indices also recorded increases: in Paris the Cac40 closed at +0,24%, London at +0,21%, in Frankfurt the Dax30 at +0,26%.
Positive closure yesterday for the Btp, on the highs, in a market focused on waiting for the conclusion of the Fed meeting and the result of the Dutch elections. The rate on the ten-year Italian benchmark fell shortly before the closing to 2,27%, to its lowest level for almost a week, retreating by a dozen basis points below the previous closing level (2,36%).
The Italy/Germany spread ended the session at a minimum, returning below the 190 bps threshold. Significant in today's session was the offer from France and Spain, which put medium-long credit cards on the table for an amount of up to 14 billion euros.
For tomorrow, the Treasury has announced an exchange operation in government bonds, for a maximum amount of 2 billion: the BTP August 2034 will be on offer, against the withdrawal of five BTPs and BTPEIs with maturities on 2017 and 2018.
FLY LEONARDO, AFTER SIX YEARS THE COUPON IS BACK
Great day for Leonardo who celebrated the return to the dividend with a leap of 7,7%. The net result is 545 million euros, better than consensus estimates. The board of directors proposes a coupon of 0,14 euro per share. For 2017, the company expects 12-12,5 billion euros of new orders: consensus at 12,1 billion. Revenues at 12 billion euros, in line with estimates.
The good intonation of bank stocks characterized the day in Piazza Affari. The outcome of the Dutch elections and the current of purchases that characterized Wall Street allow us to bet on a positive start to the day.
Unicredit has achieved a rise of 1,9 The Ceo Jean Pierre Mustier has purchased shares of the bank for a value of 2 million euros, as announced by himself during the presentation of the strategic plan on December 13th. Yesterday Mustier himself bought unlisted bank debt for 2 million.
Understanding +1%. Inflows from Eurizon Capital individual savings plans placed through Banca dei Territori have exceeded 100 million since their launch on 27 February. In great evidence Banco Bpm (+2,6%). Generali gained 1,2%: the conference call on Unipol results is held today (+3,5%).
LOW LUXURY, SAFILO ACCOUNTS DISAPPOINT
Contrasting data from the luxury sector. Ferragamo's accounts disappoint (-2,2%) recovering the lows of the day (-5%). The data is slightly below the estimates, due to the lack of dividend increases and the lack of visibility on the trend in the current year. Kepler cut the Buy to Hold recommendation.
Tod's +0,4%. 2016 closed with Ebitda down by approximately 11% to 180,9 million, with a margin on sales of 18%, and with a net profit of 86,3 million from 93 million in 2015. Yoox was also weak (- 1,83%).
Safilo announced last night that 2016 closed with a gross margin of 89 million euros (Ebitda), around 8 million euros below consensus estimates.
RECORD PERFORMANCE BY MAIRE. EVIL MARR
Purchases on Telecom Italia (+1,35%). Morgan Stanley increased the target price on the stock from 1,15 to 1,20 euro, confirming the overweight recommendation. Analysts are very confident about the group's earnings growth.
Maire Tecnimont took off with an increase of 6,8% to 2,768 euros. The plant engineering company in the petrochemical sector announced its results for the year 2016, which saw a decisive growth in all indicators. Turnover jumped by 45,9% compared to 2015, reaching 2,4 billion euros.
The order book declared by the company in its note is 6,5 billion euros. Ebitda was 160 million euros, up 22,3%, while the net result was a profit of 85,3 million euros, almost doubled since 2015. The company has proposed the distribution of a dividend from 28,4 million euros, equal to 0,093 euros per share.
Technogym on a new high for the year, after yesterday's management meeting with analysts. Marr falls (-3,9%) among the worst in the list after the results. ExanE downgraded the rating on the stock from outperform to neutral, with the target price rising from 19,4 Paribas to 20,4 euros.
