The Italian GDP will contract by 1,7% this year and by 0,4% in 2013. The deficit will instead decrease to 1,7% and 0,6% of GDP respectively. The real balanced budget will therefore only arrive in 2014. These are the forecasts of theOECD, which in the latest Economic Outlook significantly cuts the estimates for our country: last November the international organization spoke of a recession of 0,5% in 2012 and of a slight recovery (+0,1%) coming next year . According to the latest data, however, the Italian GDP will begin to recover only at the end of 2013.
But that's not all. According to the OECD, "due to the expected recession, other fiscal measures may be needed", even if "the Italian government's prudent estimates of tax revenues and the proceeds from the fight against tax evasion offer a margin of safety".
As for structural reforms launched so far, "have strengthened the country's long-term economic growth prospects", but "in the short term they will not have a significant impact on expected growth". Furthermore, unemployment will continue to rise: this year according to the Paris-based body it will reach 9,4%, and in 2013 it will increase to 9,9%.
Broadening its gaze to the Eurozone, the OECD believes that the European Central Bank "must restart and expand its purchases" of government bonds if market instability and volatility were to increase. Finally, "with inflationary pressures easing", the ECB "has scope" to cut interest rates.
