the ax ofOECD falls on GDP of Italy. According to the new forecasts published today by the Organization, our country will close 2014 with a GDP contraction of 0,4%. The cut is very heavy, considering that in May the estimates still spoke of a +0,5%. For 2015, on the other hand, the reduction is by a whole percentage point: growth expected at 0,1%, against the +1,1% indicated in the Economic Outlook published five months ago.
The numbers confirm that Italy ranks last among the large advanced economies of the G7. The Parisian institution has revised downwards the estimates for all countries, with the exception of Great Britain and Canada, but the most substantial cuts concern our country.
The OECD speaks of aglobal economy which continues to grow "at a moderate and discontinuous pace", with divergent trends between the various economic areas. In particular, with the Use which mark solid growth rates, the Organization expects a +2,1% this year and a +3,1% for 2015. Theeuro area, however, will continue to deal with a weak economic situation: +0,8% in 2014 and +1,1% in 2015.
As for individual countries, in Germany growth will settle at +1,5% both this year and next, while in France there will be a +0,4% on 2014 and a +1% on 2015. In Japan +0,9% is expected this year and +1,1% next, while in Britain respectively +3,1 and +2,8%.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development warns that moderating growth means that labor markets will remain "basically sluggish", especially in the eurozone, while global trade will be sluggish.
The euro area is particularly concerned about the weakness of the question and for the risk of deflation. Confidence is weakening again and the anemic state of demand is reflected in the decline in inflation, which has lasted for three years. Near-zero inflation "clearly increases the risk of a fall into deflation, which could perpetuate stagnation and exacerbate the debt burden." Given the weakness of demand, "the flexibility provided within the EU fiscal rules should be used to support growth".
