Are the Milanese really out and about, not respecting the quarantine and thus contributing to the increase in coronavirus infections recently recorded in the Lombard capital? "No it does not. The displacements are a tiny fraction of the "normal" ones: just read the various available data correctly". After the alarm raised by the Lombardy Region about too many trips (on several occasions the vice president Fabrizio Sala spoke of "40% of trips in Lombardy", a figure considered unacceptable and a possible cause of the spread of infections), and with the approach of the Phase 2 which will make the mapping of the movements of Italians the crucial data, FIRSTonline asked the expert of the Milan Polytechnic Paolo Beria for guidance, professor of Transport Economics and director of Traspol, the transport policy laboratory.
In a long thread posted on his Twitter account, Beria cross-referenced a series of data from reliable sources, in particular those of Google Mobility Reports, the Google service which uses GPS to reconstruct the travel history visible on its Maps, and is able to provide information with a very low margin of error: "In the meantime, it is physiological that 40% of Lombards do not stay at home, given that there are those who work and there are, as we know, a series of permitted exits. It just means that out of all cell phones, 4 out of 10 register even just one cell change a day, which could be equivalent to moving even a few hundred meters".
Professor, how should the data be read, also in view of Phase 2 and coexistence with the virus?
“Meanwhile, the Lombardy Region only makes press releases. I asked them for more information and if they send it to me I will be able to evaluate more precisely. However, there are many other data available: those of the Municipality of Milan, for example, which tell us that 95% of the citizens checked are in good standing, and that only 7% of regular users travel on the subway (with a frequency of 75%). , and furthermore that entrances to Area C have dropped by 69% and those to the city (AreaB) by 66%. Then there are those of the Enel X Yourban website and Apple, but the richest is the Google Mobility Report”.
What does it reveal to us?
“It's interesting because it gives us visits to places, dividing them into 6 categories: leisure, work, shopping, etc. The analysis is regional and indicates that in Lombardy during the lockdown, so-called leisure outings decreased by as much as 96%. Permanence in the workplace instead dropped by only 65%, but this is consistent with the fact that many categories still work: as a first approximation, therefore, 35% leave the house to go to work, a normal figure. Google also tells us that in Milan and Lombardy we are spending 24% more time at home, a very high figure if we consider that as a rule we already spend a lot of it, even just to sleep and that some categories, such as the elderly, already they used to spend most of their time at home.”
Yet the Region continues to be alarmist, speaking of 40% of Lombards around.
“The data is not wrong in itself, but if it is not read correctly it can send the wrong message and generate panic and guilt, especially if it is associated with an increase in infections. Let's imagine 10 people in an apartment building. Previously each of them did 10 cell changes a day in normal life. Today, for example, two take the dog out, one works in the hospital and everyone goes shopping once a week. So before from our building 10/10 they left the house, making 100 cell changes a day. Today only 2+1+10/7, i.e. 4,42 people go out (44%), but make only 5,42 trips (4,42 plus the worker's return home), almost all very short (5,4 %)".
So Milan is not rediscovering itself as undisciplined.
“No, indeed. They help us in this Enel X data, which show, among other things, that Milan is the one that moves the least in Lombardy, with -93% of movements and -95% of km travelled. A figure similar to that of Naples (-95% and -96%) and better than that of Varese, for example, -76%. In smaller towns, however, it is normal that you change cells more often, perhaps having to travel for several kilometers to reach the permitted destinations".
What situation do you foresee for Phase 2? An App, "Immuni", is on the way, which will be able to both track movements and record (anonymously) all the other devices we come across.
“It won't be easy. From a mobility point of view, I foresee a Phase 2 with still few movements: some activities will reopen, but there will still be the fear effect that will limit movements. We will mostly travel by car, therefore in relative safety compared to public transport. We will still see few people on public transport so distancing shouldn't be a problem. Phase 3 will be different, the return to normality, perhaps in the autumn with the reopening of schools. It is difficult to imagine that bus and metro journeys could be tripled, which would mean more personnel and much more costs. These costs will not fall on the users, but on the coffers of the state and the municipal companies they certainly will".
What would the alternative be?
“Social distancing will be difficult. I'm not a doctor and I wouldn't want to say too much, but perhaps from the point of view of mobility it would be better to focus more on protection (gloves, masks) than on distancing".
What role did mobility play in the contagion?
“I analyzed 4 of the very first outbreaks: Codogno, Vo' Euganeo, Val Seriana and Pesaro. It came out that in a small town like Codogno mobility was decisive in the meantime because around there are ten municipalities that are very connected to each other, which form an area of 50.000 inhabitants, and then because of their proximity to Milan and therefore commuting. Vo' is a small town in its own right, people live and work closer together, and this explains the greater containment of the contagion. Val Seriana is practically the outskirts of Bergamo, which being the capital offers all the essential services. The data on movements in those areas were very indicative from the beginning, there is no doubt that the red zone had to be established".
How will mobility change in times of the coronavirus?
“It depends on the vaccine. If it arrives within a few years, everything will go back to the way it was. In the event of a permanent virus, however, the paradigms we were getting used to could change, namely in particular car sharing and other means of sharing. If the vaccine does not arrive, the physiognomy of cities will change: the economy today is based on large agglomerations, on the centralization of production activities and services around large cities. A lasting coexistence with the virus could lead us to review these models and to relocate and disperse various activities”.
