The data of the Istat Report on the Labor Market relating to November 2019 are undoubtedly positive. For once all the indexes are in the right range (positive or negative depending on which index it is). Even the downward trend in the unemployment rate this time has a real meaning and not just a statistical one, because it is accompanied by a decrease in the inactivity rate: in essence, more people are looking for work and finding it.
Even the term work, which in spite of the Dignity Decree, it continued to grow over the 11 months previous ones this time it records a decrease, even if minimal. It is difficult to say whether it is a trend reversal or an economic phenomenon, but it is fair to report it. However, for a more complete analysis it is advisable to wait for the year-end reports, from which it will be possible to obtain more precise data on the quality of employment, wages, terminations and mobility.
However, some outlooks can be ventured on the basis of ISTAT data updated to the third quarter, therefore to October 2019, relating to what appears to be the specific problem of the Italian economy: employment growth without output growth and, even less, productivity. Let's see them. (ISTAT Congiuntura data - October 2019)
The annual number of hours worked had an index of 115,1 in the first quarter of 2008, and only 111,8 in the third quarter of 2019. These are seasonally adjusted data, but if we wanted to look at those corrected for working days we would even be at 107!
Hours worked per employee fell from 107,2 in the first quarter of 2018 to 100,4 in the third quarter of 2019, which, corrected for working days, even falls to 94,3! Two figures that explain why the growth of individual employment the number of hours worked does not increase.
It is easy to imagine that at the basis of the phenomenon there is the great diffusion of part time, especially involuntary and female, in the services sector: we will verify it when the joint Ministry - INPS - ISTAT - INAIL report on 2018 is released.
However, it is better not to rely on a reading that identifies the crux of the matter only in underemployment in services: in the industrial sector the seasonally adjusted production index marks 114,1 in November 2008 and only 112,9 in November 2019 (data corrected for the days working).
Ultimately we are faced with an occupation that is growing in numerical terms, probably thanks to the part-time job in the services sector, and substantially more stable employment in industry but without an increase in hours worked.
The perspective in these terms is not much, but we will see something more precise in the next survey.
