Apart from decimals, minus zero point two rather than plus zero point one, what the GDP data for the second quarter tells us is that the Italian economy is in stagnation. But substantially the entire economy of the euro area is also in stagnation. Belgium has already recorded a modest +0,1% change in the quarter and less striking results are expected for the other major countries from the press releases that will be released on the eve of August XNUMXth.
Behind the weakening of the economy, in Italy as in the rest of the eurozone, there is a common fact: the deceleration of exports. Within the export freeze there are two sets of problems.
On the one hand, there is the slowdown in world trade, including that outside Europe. In 2014, the pace of development of world trade is growing as much as the world's GDP. Before the crisis, world trade was growing twice as fast as world growth every year. It is not only the fault of the new hotbeds of geopolitical tensions, which are so close to our Mediterranean sea.
It is, I believe, above all, the reflection of a globalization of economies that has entered a new phase: a phase of maturity, where distances count again and "re-shoring", the repatriation of productions begins to take on significant dimensions for the countries that know how to stimulate it, the USA in primis.
On the other hand, the slowdown in foreign trade is above all an intra-European fact. If you open the Eurostat databases you discover that in the twelve months ending in April 2014 exports to partner countries of the euro area are, in billions of euros, exactly the same as a year earlier. This happens for Italy as well as for Germany. Internal exports to the single currency area are at a standstill. This is a worrying figure, especially if read in conjunction with the dangerous drop in inflation towards zero.
Exports need to be relaunched, in the extra-EU segment, but also towards the closest European markets. It's not just an Italian problem. And, alongside exports, Europe needs to activate internal sources of development, starting with investment plans in infrastructure. The export-led model is no longer enough, not even for Germany. It's time to think about a hybrid propulsion of the economy of the Old Continent: together with the export-led we need a Europe-led driving force.
