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The spread runs and hits banks and the stock exchange

The uncertainty about the Coronavirus and the signs of a recession are driving up the spread which weighs on bank stocks and makes Piazza Affari the black shirt of Europe - Wall Street positive

The spread runs and hits banks and the stock exchange

It doesn't stop the bleeding Business Square which even today leaves 1,5% in the field, falling to 21,655 points. The utilities stem the losses of the main price list: Terna +1,37%; Enel +0,85%; Ivy +0,72%; Snam +0,56%; Italgas +0,51%. Back to positive nexi, +1,87%, best blue chip of the day. The sales are instead massive on the banks, especially those that had earned a lot in the wake of the aggregation hypotheses: Bpm bank -6,28%; Ubi -5,43%; Bper -5,39%. In the other sectors the heaviest drops are for Buzzi -5,77% and Juventus -5,22%. On the secondary it rises further spread between ten-year Italian and German: 176 basis points (+4,9%); the 10-year BTP yields 1,13%.

The situation is more rosy for the high European lists, which closed their worst week since 2008 last Friday: Frankfurt -0,3; Madrid +0,12%; Paris +0,44%. The rebound was more decisive London +1,17% and Zurich + 0,97%.

It collapses instead Athens, -6,5%, with the humanitarian crisis just around the corner and the clashes on the border between Greece and Turkey where tens of thousands of refugees and immigrants are trying to enter Europe.

Thus ends a particularly nervous and volatile session. In fact, the start had been positive, in the wake of Asian price lists and the possibility that central banks would support the economy, but the climate changed when the OECD underlined that theThe coronavirus is the biggest danger since the 2008 financial crisis and warned that world GDP will only grow by 2,4% this year and not 2,9%. The situation could turn out to be even worse (+1,5%) if the epidemic spreads further and should be prolonged.

The Buys then rallied again following the matching opening of Wall Street, which is currently accelerating to the upside. In this case we are looking at the moves of the Fed, from which intervention is expected from the March meeting. Investors expect a rate cut of 50 basis points as early as the meeting of 17-18 this month and Donald Trump is once again pressing Jerome Powell to make him act in this direction.

Meanwhile, the prices of US government bonds continue to rise, while yields fall. According to Michele Morganti, Senior Equity Strategist at Generali Investments, this is one of the elements that indicates that the level of panic reached by the market is already quite extreme and shares could therefore become very attractive again. “Yields on 10-year US bonds – she writes – have returned to the minimum levels (120-130bp) recorded in mid-2012 and in 2016, historical moments characterized by high uncertainty. Such low rates will support the real economy and potentially the performance of riskier assets than bonds, adjusted for their volatility”.

Going back to the day's data, raw materials are also trying to get back on their feet. Well the Petroleum, with Brent rising to 51,98 dollars a barrel (+4,67%), pending the meeting of the major exporters of crude oil, OPEC+, scheduled for Thursday with the issue of reducing production still on the table.

THEgold it aims to hang up on the 1600 dollar level and moves up to 1596,95 dollars an ounce.

On the foreign exchange market, the recovery of theeuro against the dollar, with the exchange rate at 1,1149. According to ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, the single currency will not see marked swings related to the recent market turbulence and Frankfurt does not have an exchange rate target. “In my opinion it shouldn't move much, staying around $1,10”. Meanwhile, he says, the main central banks have been discussing the fallout from the spread of the coronavirus epidemic, as always happens in moments of high volatility.

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