BTP/BUND SPREAD AT HISTORIC HIGH
ALMOST FLAT BAG WAITING FOR TRICHET
The attempted rebound of the Milan stock exchange was short-lived. After the first hour of trading, the Ftse Mib index lost strength: -0,25 to 19.733. In Paris the Cac marks +0,43% on a par with Frankfurt. In anticipation of Jean-Claude Trichet's press conference, at the conclusion of the ECB meeting which will raise rates by a quarter of a point, sales on government bonds of peripheral countries are thickening, including Italy. The yield on the 5-year BTP rises today by another 5,15 basis points to 225%. The spread with the German Bund reached a new all-time high at 3 basis points this morning. “The context, negative, hasn't changed compared to the past few days, plus today there are the Spanish 5- and 1,429-year auctions whose weight is added to the peripheral segment,” explains a trader from Milan. The euro fell sharply against the dollar (1,4319 from 1,1971 yesterday evening) and above all against the Swiss franc, which rose to 1,2017 from XNUMX.
For once, interest rates won't be the main theme of the press meeting with Trichet, four months before the central banker's next departure from the scene. The markets want to know, in particular, the ECB's attitude towards Greek bonds, in the event that S&P's or another rating agency decrees the default of Athens. Will the ECB really reject the Hellenic bonds as collateral, assuming the responsibility of practically getting Greece out of the euro area? Or will he come up with a diplomatic trick to avoid a showdown, even at the cost of compromising the institution's credibility? This morning, meanwhile, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos met with ECB Governor Jean-Claude Trichet. This was announced by the minister's secretariat. "They talked about the privatization program and the banking system in view of the Eurogroup," a ministry spokesman told Reuters.
ENEL GREEN POWER SHAKES THE MARKET PLACE
TODAY GREEN LIGHT FOR A2A'S BOARD OF DIRECTORS AT EDF IN EDISON
Enel Green Power rose by 1,6% supported by the positive recommendation of JP Morgan which raised the tp to 2,33 from 2,05 euros, also because the broker believes there is still room for an increase in the group's production capacity against a forecast of higher investments. Of Enel Green Power, Jp Morgan appreciates the low risk profile due to the geographical and technological diversification of the business. Edison rises by 1,2%. The Management and Supervisory Boards of A2A (-1,04%) will be held today, with the thorny issue of the Edison reorganization on the agenda.
We recall that in recent days the operation appears to have received new political support, as evidenced by the words of the undersecretary for economic development Stefano Saglia, who stated that 'Edison will remain Italian even when it has a French reference shareholder'. Saglia then added that he had already communicated to EDF that "Edison's international strategies will be agreed in advance with the Italian government". On the plate is the sale of the majority of Transalpina di Energia, the holding company that controls Edison, to the French EDF. Negotiations have been going on for some time now but it seems that the parties are not far from an agreement. In the event of a change of majority, it is probable that EDF will be forced to launch a takeover bid on Edison.
More news on the renewable energy front, one of the few on the move. Pirelli will take over a 16% stake in Gwm Renewable Energy II, an investment company owned by the Pallavicini-Diaz and Rovati families which operates in the segment of the production of energy from renewable sources. The expected outlay is 25 million euros. According to press rumors, Pirelli Ambiente, 51% controlled by Pirelli and 49% by Camfin, is planning a reorganization of the activities carried out. In particular, the purchase of 16% of Gwm Renewable Energy II (vehicle that controls the renewable energy activities of the Gwm group), investing 10 million and selling the stake in the Gp Energia joint venture to Gwm itself. "The deal, although small - explains Equita in today's note - serves to further clean up the perimeter of activities not belonging to the tire sector and to enhance an asset with limited visibility, above all to the benefit of Camfin", concludes the broker, maintaining the buy recommendation on the Pirelli share with a target price of 8,5 euros.
Meanwhile, after having unsuccessfully tried until the end to include the reform within the finance law, the Northern League announces that it will soon present the same proposal to Parliament for a cut in the incentives for renewables. According to Intermonte's projections, many companies would be negatively impacted by a 30% cut. In particular: Enel Green Power (-10% in earnings per share), Edison (-9,9% in earnings per share), Iren (-8,5% in earnings per share), Erg ( -13% in earnings per share) and Falck Renewables (-61% in earnings per share).
ITALIAN BANKS ON THE ROLLER COASTER
FONSAI RELEASES THEN THEN RETURNS TO RED
In Piazza Affari the banks are very volatile. Moody's has carried out stress tests on 91 European banks selected by the EBA, the European Banking Authority. According to the rating agency's projections, 26 institutions would not have passed the stress test. All the Italian banks would have passed the internal test of Moody's while among the rejected banks there would be Greek, Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, Austrian and German banks. Unicredit -0,1%, Intesa -0,1%, Pop. Milano -0,7%. MontePaschi +1,5% and Ubi +0,2% remain positive. Positive start for Piazza Affari and the other European Stock Exchanges. In Milan, the FtseMib index rose by 0,2% with timid rebounds across the entire list. Yesterday the banks suffered heavy losses, but today it is not the banks that are leading the recovery. Intesa, after an initial rebound back below (-1,29% at 12), Unicredit scores -1,43%, Ubi unchanged. MontePaschi scores +0,19%.
Among the insurance companies, Fonsai first recovers (+3,2%) then, after 11, falls back into negative territory (-5,70% at 12). All this in the aftermath of the board of directors who resolved to put another of the family jewels up for sale: the Settala house, a historic building in via Pantano, in the center of Milan. The property was put on the market for 60 million euros, 14 million euros more than the book value. Other indiscretions, also reported by Il Messaggero, report that Unicredit has concluded the selection of its representatives who will occupy three seats on the board of directors of Fondiaria Sai. The bank has chosen Ranieri de Marchis (head of Unicredit's audit), Roberto Cappelli (president of As Roma) and Salvatore Militello (professor of insurance statistics at the Bicocca University of Milan and former manager of Ras).
UPA EXPECTS ZERO GROWTH FOR ADVERTISING 2011
ADREANI (MEDIASET): IT WILL GET BETTER IN THE NEXT MONTHS
During the assembly, the UPA, Users of Publicity Associates, said that it expects an advertising market in Italy with zero growth in 2011. At the end of the year, the total amount of advertising investments should be close to 9,3 billion euros: radio should drop by 7,1%, TV by 1,5% (according to Nielsen in the first 4 months Mediaset lost 0,5%, RAI by 8%), newspapers by 3%; the only one to grow is the internet + 18%. Giuliano Adreani, CEO of Mediaset Pubblicità however remains optimistic about the recovery of revenues in the second half of the year. “I have the feeling that in the second half of the year there could be a recovery in investments”.
IMPREGILO PROMOTED BY EQUITA
CASTELLI (LEAGUE) BESIDE ATLANTIA
Impregilo to the attention of Equita, which confirms the purchase recommendation (“buy”) on the stock with a target price of 3,95 euros. The resources deriving from the financial maneuver launched by the government will serve to unblock the works for the third Milan-Genoa crossing point, whose general contractor is Cociv. "We recall that Cociv - explains the Milanese sim in today's note - is the consortium of companies led by Impregilo, with a 50% share, and which also includes Maire Tecnimont, with a 20% share, which has the work in its portfolio with a total value of approximately five billion". The signing of the agreement between the counterparts (Cociv and Ferrovie dello Stato) would be very close and work should start shortly. “Our model and the valuation of Impregilo do not include the contribution of this contract”, conclude the analysts. Well the title in Piazza Affari.
The industrialists from Fiat to Tenaris are positive.
Backtracking among the "mid caps" of Telecom Italia Media which falls by 3,3%. Deputy Minister for Infrastructure Roberto Castelli says that the majority is ready to present amendments to the law on the depreciation of concessionaires, including motorway ones, in Parliament. Castelli spoke at the Aiscat assembly, responding to the harsh criticism of the maneuver by the president of the association of motorway concessionaires Fabrizio Palenzona. “I am optimistic that the rule can be changed in Parliament. I expect majority amendments in no opposition to the government,” Castelli said. The Northern League deputy minister then added, addressing the motorway concessionaires: "We are at your side as we are at Minister Tremonti's side for the maintenance of public accounts".
