The grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD will arrive, but later than expected. A month and a half before the federal elections, negotiations between the three parties that will have to form a new government are stagnating. To date, it is difficult to speculate whether the coalition contract will be signed before Christmas. Negotiations, in fact, continue slowly. There is still no agreement on the main issues. For now, the convergences have been found on marginal issues, such as a tax on financial transactions for the whole EU, the introduction of women's quotas in German companies and a control on rents. No compromise in sight, however, on the minimum wage, motorway tolls and dual citizenship.
In the past week, work continued in the restricted thematic groups, which will then report to the assembly of 75 negotiators. The outcome of the work in small groups is a multiplication of spending initiatives. There Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, at the beginning of the week, worriedly sounded the alarm: 60 billion in new expenses and no plans to cover them. These include: one billion a year up to 2018 for broadband, 3-5 billion to guarantee pensions for those who have paid contributions for at least 45 years and have reached the age of 63, 15 billion to raise minimum pensions, 7 billion for investments in infrastructure, 18 billion more for education and research.
Thanks to the recent estimates of rising tax revenues, the pro-spending euphoria of the negotiators has given birth to proposals that are difficult to implement without an increase in the tax burden. It would be risky to want to rely exclusively on economic growth. The balanced budget could not be respected by 2016, as established in the Constitution. But it's not just the figures for new public spending that raise many doubts. In a study published by Deutsche Bank, the index points in particular against the minimum wage of 8,5 euros per hour for all of Germany, as proposed by the SPD. According to DB analysts, "a minimum wage would affect about 6 million workers and cost between 450.000 and 1 million jobs", would make it more difficult for low-skilled workers to find employment, not to mention that an "annual adjustment of the level of the minimum wage could also influence collective agreements, generating a general rise in wages”. Wage effects would have a particularly negative impact on the service sector, while they should not have much impact on the export industry, where wages are on average higher.
