In the report on the Prospects for the Italian economy in 2018-2019, Istat revises downwards GDP forecasts for 2018. The Italian economy will grow by 1,1% in real terms this year, "slowing down" compared to the +1,6% recorded in 2017.
The previous forecast, released in May, was for an increase of 1,4%, while that of the Government amounts to +1,2%. GDP growth is expected to "slightly accelerate" in 2019 (+1,3%).
“The current forecast scenario – comments the National Institute of Statistics however – is characterized by some downside risks represented by a more moderate evolution of international trade, by an increase in the level of uncertainty of operators and by the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank".
At the same time, however, they also arrived OECD estimates which has decided to cut the forecasts for 2019 and 2020, when the GDP will grow by only 0,9% against the +1,1% previously forecast. For the current year however, Cose speaks of a growth of 1%. Also in this case it is a downward forecast from the +1,2% estimated in September and from the +1,4% in May. "The recovery has lost momentum" and "the increase in uncertainty and in interest rates will reduce the propensity of households and businesses to consume and invest, offsetting the expansionary effects of the public budget on activity", explains the Economic Outlook half-yearly of the Organization.
Going back to Istat, the household spending and private social institutions which in 2018 is estimated at +0,9%. Also in this case, writes Istat, it is a "decisive slowdown" compared to previous years, with a recovery in 2019 (+1,2%), "when it would benefit from the positive effects of the fiscal policies indicated in the Budget Law ”. In 2017 household spending had increased by 1,5%.
Bad the foreign demand, which in 2018 would be even negative for this year (-0,2%), while in 2019 it is expected to be zero. Better the internal question, with a contribution of 1,3% for both this year and next year.
Moving tooccupation, Istat expects a growth of 0,9% in terms of work units for 2018 with a consequent reduction of the unemployment rate to 10,5%. Employment growth of 2019 percent and a further decrease in the unemployment rate to 0,9 percent are forecast for 10,2.
Finally, according to Istat, in the current year the process of rebuilding the capital stock will continue at a sustained pace influenced both by the continuation of the expansionary cycle of means of transport and by the favorable conditions on the credit market. Gross fixed investments are expected to grow by 3,9% in 2018 and then decelerate in 2019 (+3,2).
