The effect of the expansive signals arriving from the Fed was largely obscured by the signs of recession in the Bel Paese, heavier than even cautious forecasts. And so, after the positive start, Piazza Affari took the downward path, under the pressure of the sales of bank shares, Italy's risk thermometer in these days more sensitive than government bonds, subject throughout the Eurozone to strong currents of purchase. Milan at 13 pm leaves 0,43% on the ground at 19 points. Frankfurt +687%, Paris +0,04% moved little. The rise of the London Stock Exchange +0,22% continues. Conversely, Madrid travels in the red -0,50%, despite the fact that the economic situation, unlike in Italy, is traveling at full speed.
According to Istat, in the fourth quarter of 2018 the Italian GDP recorded a drop of 0,2% compared to the previous quarter, entering a technical recession after the -0,1% recorded in the third quarter. “This estimate – comments the Institute – reflects a clear worsening of the industrial sector on the supply side”. In 2018, GDP adjusted for calendar effects increased by 0,8%, communicates Istat. The figure, according to Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, it is the fault of the general slowdown in the economy. Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio comments as follows: "The Istat data certify the failure of the entire political class that the Italians sent home on March 4".
But the comparison with other countries highlights a quite evident Italian "deviation". Between October and December, Spanish GDP expanded by 0,7% on a quarterly basis after +0,6% recorded in the third quarter. On an annual basis, GDP grew by 2,4%. Even France, despite the effect of the gilets jaunes, rises by 0,3%. The European economy is stable. Eurostat reports that preliminary GDP for the fourth quarter of 2018 for the euro area is up by 0,2% on a quarter.
The inflow of demand for bonds continues. The ten-year BTP rose to 2,58%, the lowest since July. Spread at 240 basis points, 0,2 basis points. Brent oil is up 0,6% to $62 a barrel. On the rise Eni + 1,22%. Saipem + 2%. Tenaris +0,3%. The euro is flat at 1,147 against the dollar.
Bank stocks are under fire this morning also due to the alarm coming from Bloomberg on Deutsche Bank: if the bank's performance does not improve in the first three months of 2019, writes the agency, the hypothesis of a merger with Commerzbank will take shape. Banco Bpm fell sharply -4,1%, Where's Banca -3,2%. Morgan Stanley cuts the target price. Unicredit -3%. Italian post -2,6%.
In great shape Ferrari +2,43%. The company released this morning data for the quarter. Ebitda adjusted to 274 million euros, from 258 a year ago. For 2019, an adjusted EBIT of just over €1,20 billion is forecast. Fiat Chrysler +0,12%. China's Zhejiang Geely Holding said it has no interest in Alfa Romeo. Down Pirelli -1,6%.
New scene shot for Tim +6,2%. Activist fund Elliott thinks the shares are attractive and has increased its holding to 9,4% from 8,8%. This can be read in a filing to the SEC, where the fund adds that the group can be valued "in different ways, including the separation of the fixed access network (NetCo) and the evaluation of consolidation hypotheses, in addition to the conversion of savings shares ”. In today's filing Elliott, which bought at prices ranging between 0,46 and 0,52, announces that it has a collar on 4,9% of the capital.
In fashion it goes back Moncler -1%. Brunello cucinelli -0,4%. For Berenberg it is no longer to be bought. The new judgment is Hold. It bounces Tod’s +0,6%. For KeplerCheuvreux it is to be sold, Reduce judgment.
