Italy is a solid country that cannot fail. The debt of the Italian state is ultimately guaranteed not only by state assets, but also by a strong real economy that continues to export. A solid and capable government would be able to eliminate the deficit of the public administration in just one year, dispelling all doubts.
So are those who, like Tremonti, are right when they say that it is better to do nothing more than what has been done so far? No. Because Italy is also a heavily indebted country, which has therefore lost a large part of its sovereignty. Anyone with such a heavy debt cannot do what he thinks is right. He has to do what the market wants, even if it's not right. The new secretary of the Pdl Alfano is wrong when he recalled the supremacy of politics over the markets. Politics matters more than markets if the country doesn't have such a high debt. If he is in debt, politics matters less than the markets, because through the debt he has given up sovereignty to the markets. Of course, one can always think of closing down autonomously and perhaps abandoning the euro. But this choice would not give us back sovereignty, but only poverty.
Therefore, in the immediate future, we need to do what the markets ask for. And the markets don't ask for unreasonable things. They ask to accelerate the reduction of public debt and to take measures to promote stability and growth. I think the Italians also ask for similar things. But so far we've only heard rumors from all sides. The eight points of the government, which has included the six points of the social partners, seem only a generic plan, good (so to speak) for carrying out an electoral campaign. But there is nothing concrete and many of the objectives indicated have been part of the good intentions of past governments in recent decades.
The social partners have asked for a discontinuity. They should have provided the first break by declaring what they were willing to accept to speed up the financial recovery. If they had, they would have forced the government to do its part. Instead, everyone sends the ball back into the opponent's court, in a game that looks like tennis played by the so-called "pallettari", those who lift the ball to make it fall back into the opponent's court and take time to position themselves.
In 1992, in the face of a similar crisis of no confidence in the Italian debt, in a few days Confindustria accepted a patrimonial on the capital of the companies. The trade unions accepted the freeze on retirement pensions and the merchants and craftsmen suffered (without accepting it) the minimum tax, ie a tax to be paid even in the absence of income (a sort of asset on these companies). The government of the time (Giuliano Amato) launched a maneuver of about 90.000 billion lire (5% of the GDP at the time) and speculation stopped.
Similar measures can also be envisaged today. Extraordinary taxes can be envisaged, perhaps with the Ciampi system: that is, with the hypothesis of partial or total repayment if these taxes will allow us to curb speculation and reduce the weight of interest on the public debt. Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, thanks to a measure of this type, allowed us to join the euro which drastically cut the cost of interest and the Italians received a partial refund. Pietro Modiano, in an article in the Corriere della Sera, proposed something similar.
In turn, the union could propose to abandon old-age pensions forever, which would not reduce workers' income, but which could ensure a faster recovery of public finances. With measures of this kind, it would be possible to demand real cuts in the costs of politics. Always remembering that Italy has some excess costs in politics, but above all has poor quality of politicians. Therefore, it is not a question of paying politicians less, but of avoiding having in Parliament or in local councils, bagmen, fixers, lovers, under investigation for the Mafia, convicted by the courts, incompetent, relatives and children of politicians rejected in Italian schools and all that caravansary that gravitates over current Italian politics. And to do this we need a new electoral system and a new ethic on the part of the voters. Who no longer have to lump everything together, declaring that politics is all rotten. Each of us can distinguish because there are many politicians and many honest people in Italy. But it is necessary to get well informed about who the candidates are and refuse to vote for subjects such as those described above.
The recovery of Italy is in our hands. Let's not let him escape.
